Advanced Micro Devices revenue forecast & earnings momentum#
AMD posted a sharp jump in reported profitability while the market continues to price future growth at a premium: FY2024 net income reached $1.64B, up +92.15% year-over-year, even as the TTM price/earnings multiple sits near ~99.86x, creating a clear growth-versus-valuation tension.
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Intraday quotes show the share price at $174.95 (change +1.55%), with market capitalization near $283.9B on the latest snapshot — small discrepancies appear across feeds but reflect normal intraday quote timing (profile vs. real-time quote variation). (Source: Monexa AI.
The timing matters: the next scheduled earnings announcement is flagged for November, which places greater emphasis on the company’s ability to sustain margin expansion and free-cash-flow conversion in the coming quarters. (Source: Monexa AI.
Key developments and recent market moves#
Recent quarterly releases show a pattern of narrow beats: Q2 (Aug 5) EPS $0.48 vs est $0.4792, Q1 (May 6) EPS $0.96 vs est $0.944, and Q4 (Feb 4) EPS $1.09 vs est $1.08, demonstrating consistent delivery relative to consensus. (Source: Monexa AI.
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Capital allocation was active in FY2024: common stock repurchases of $1.59B, acquisitions net -$565MM, and no dividends were paid. Free cash flow for FY2024 was $2.40B, with net cash provided by operations at $3.04B. (Source: Monexa AI.
Leverage remains low: reported net debt is -$1.36B (net cash) and total debt $2.32B, supporting flexibility for buybacks, tuck-in deals or R&D investment. (Source: Monexa AI.
Financial performance, cash flow and capital allocation#
FY2024 revenue totaled $25.79B — a +13.69% increase from FY2023 — driven by margin expansion that lifted gross profit to $11.28B and gross margin to 43.73% (up from 37.88% in 2023). Operating income improved to $2.22B and net income to $1.64B. (Source: Monexa AI.
Cash-flow dynamics improved materially: FY2024 free cash flow was $2.40B, a +114.54% change on the period metric, after capital expenditure of -$636MM and acquisition outlays -$565MM. Common-stock repurchases consumed a meaningful portion of cash generation. (Source: Monexa AI.
The balance sheet shows cash & equivalents $3.68B and cash + short-term investments $5.13B, with total assets $69.23B and total liabilities $11.66B, underpinning a strong current ratio and low leverage profile. (Source: Monexa AI.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $25.79B | $11.28B | $2.22B | $1.64B |
| 2023 | $22.68B | $8.59B | $0.63B | $0.85B |
| 2022 | $23.60B | $8.50B | $1.61B | $1.32B |
(Source: Monexa AI
Analyst estimates and forward valuation#
Consensus estimates point to continued top-line and EPS acceleration: the dataset shows a revenue CAGR (future) of +23.64% and an EPS CAGR of +33.38% across the forecast horizon, underpinning elevated forward multiples in consensus models. (Source: Monexa AI.
Market-implied multiples compress across the forecast window — forward P/E estimates are 51.37x (2024), 42.75x (2025) and 28.54x (2026) — indicating that analysts model substantial EPS expansion rather than immediate margin improvement alone. (Source: Monexa AI.
Analyst revenue and EPS point estimates (selected years) are summarized below; note the progressive scale-up reflected in both revenue and EPS counts of analyst coverage: (Source: Monexa AI.
| Year | Est. Revenue | Est. EPS | Analysts (Rev/EPS) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $25.67B | 3.31 | 29 / 31 |
| 2025 | $32.88B | 3.91 | 31 / 28 |
| 2026 | $39.65B | 6.00 | 35 / 26 |
| 2027 | $45.90B | 7.41 | 23 / 11 |
| 2028 | $60.00B | 10.49 | 11 / 5 |
(Source: Monexa AI
Why is AMD commanding a high multiple despite current earnings? (featured snippet)#
The market is pricing anticipated earnings acceleration tied to secular AI and data-center demand, plus sustained product investment; consensus models show an implied EPS CAGR of +33.38%, which supports elevated forward multiples even while near-term reported earnings remain moderate. (Source: Monexa AI.
Supporting detail: consensus forward P/E compression from 51.37x to 28.54x by 2026 assumes EPS growth, not a valuation multiple expansion; the market is effectively front-loading future profits into today’s price. (Source: Monexa AI.
Supporting detail: R&D intensity is high — R&D expense was $6.46B in FY2024 and R&D-to-revenue TTM is 23.55%, signaling that a sizeable portion of cash flow is being reinvested into product cycles that underpin the revenue and EPS trajectory baked into forward estimates. (Source: Monexa AI.
Competitive landscape and strategic effectiveness#
AMD operates at the intersection of CPU, GPU and accelerator markets where competitive dynamics remain intense. The company’s investment profile — notably R&D at $6.46B and elevated intangible assets ($43.77B of goodwill & intangibles in FY2024) — reflects both product development and past M&A, which shape reported returns on capital. (Source: Monexa AI.
Capital allocation shows a mix of buybacks (-$1.59B), acquisitions (-$565MM) and no dividend payouts, consistent with a growth-and-scale emphasis; repurchases represented about -66.25% of FY2024 free cash flow, highlighting management’s preference for share reduction while funding R&D and selective M&A. (Calculation and source: Monexa AI.
From a strategic-effectiveness angle, R&D as ~23.55% of revenue is high relative to many semiconductor peers (supporting product cycles), but investors should monitor the cadence of data-center wins and gross-margin retention as the principal proof points that R&D is converting to durable, higher-margin revenue. (Source: Monexa AI; sector context: McKinsey - The state of AI.
Key takeaways and what this means for investors#
AMD shows a classic growth/valuation divergence: strong recent profit acceleration (net income +92.15%) and improving free cash flow coexist with elevated forward multiples that price in significant future EPS upside. (Source: Monexa AI.
- Growth vs valuation: FY2024 revenue $25.79B (+13.69%) and net income $1.64B (+92.15%) underpin analyst EPS momentum expectations. (Source: Monexa AI.
- Cash & capital allocation: Free cash flow $2.40B after $1.59B in buybacks (repurchases ≈ -66.25% of FCF). (Source: Monexa AI.
- Investment intensity: R&D-to-revenue TTM 23.55%, intangible assets $43.77B — capital is being directed at long-cycle product advantage. (Source: Monexa AI.
Investors and analysts should track three objective indicators that will clarify execution: (1) data-center and AI-related revenue cadence and market-share disclosures, (2) gross-margin trajectory by product line, and (3) free-cash-flow conversion after buybacks and M&A. These metrics will determine whether forward multiples are validated by realized EPS growth rather than multiple expansion. (Source: Monexa AI.