Air Products and Chemicals (APD) NEOM Project: Financial Resilience Amid Green Hydrogen Ambitions

Introduction#

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD is advancing rapidly on its landmark NEOM green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia, currently nearing 80-85% completion. This ambitious initiative aims to place the company at the forefront of the global energy transition by producing green hydrogen at scale. However, while the technical execution progresses steadily, significant commercial challenges remain, particularly in securing offtake agreements for more than half of the projected output. Meanwhile, Air Products continues to demonstrate solid financial resilience, marked by robust Q3 earnings beats and expanding EBIT margins, underscoring the company’s ability to balance innovation-driven growth with operational discipline.

NEOM Green Hydrogen Project: Strategic Importance and Progress#

Saudi Arabia’s Vision and Air Products’ Role#

The NEOM project is central to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, aiming to diversify the kingdom's energy economy through sustainable and renewable solutions. Air Products has invested billions in this megaproject, supplying electrolysis technology and infrastructure to produce green hydrogen using renewable energy sources. With an initial electrolysis capacity target of up to 4 gigawatts, NEOM aspires to become a global hub for green hydrogen export, particularly targeting European and Asian markets.

As of mid-2025, construction and commissioning phases of NEOM are approximately 80-85% complete, with the electrolysers nearing installation and testing stages. The project is on track for commercial operations to commence by late 2026, with the first ammonia production expected in 2027. This timeline, while ambitious, reflects Air Products’ commitment to operational execution at scale.

Offtake Challenges and Market Realities#

Despite technical progress, NEOM faces a critical commercial hurdle: securing buyers for over half of its planned hydrogen output. To date, only TotalEnergies has committed to around one-third of the production. This limited offtake agreement has delayed downstream infrastructure investments, including the development of European receiving terminals. The uncertainty around demand raises questions about the project’s near-term financial returns and its ability to achieve economies of scale.

Phased infrastructure development is being considered as a risk mitigation strategy. However, the absence of firm contracts beyond TotalEnergies could slow revenue generation and affect the project's profitability.

Financial Performance: Air Products’ Resilience Amid Transition#

Earnings and Margin Expansion#

Air Products reported a Q3 earnings beat with actual earnings of $3.09 per share versus estimates of $3.00, highlighting strong operational performance despite sector headwinds. The company’s EBIT margin expanded to 36.91% in FY 2024, a significant improvement from 19.8% in FY 2023, driven by cost efficiencies and a favorable product mix in its core industrial gases segment.

This margin expansion contrasts sharply with prior years, reflecting successful strategic shifts and effective cost control. The gross profit ratio also increased to 32.49% in 2024 from 29.9% in 2023, further supporting profitability gains.

Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow Dynamics#

Capital expenditures surged to $6.8 billion in FY 2024, reflecting heavy investments in hydrogen infrastructure including NEOM. This outlay contributed to a negative free cash flow of -$3.15 billion, a reversal from positive free cash flow in previous years. Despite this, operating cash flow remained robust at $3.65 billion, supporting ongoing investments without compromising liquidity.

The company’s balance sheet remains solid, with total assets rising to $39.57 billion and total stockholders’ equity reaching $17.04 billion. Net debt increased to $12.03 billion, reflecting financing for growth initiatives but remains manageable given Air Products’ consistent cash flow generation.

Dividend Sustainability and Shareholder Returns#

Air Products maintains a steady dividend policy with a trailing twelve-month dividend per share of $7.12 and a dividend yield of approximately 2.46%. The payout ratio is high at 101.85%, indicating dividends are closely matched to earnings and cash flows. Despite the high payout, the company has historically balanced dividends with reinvestment in growth, maintaining shareholder value.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Positioning#

Leadership in Green Hydrogen#

Air Products’ commitment to NEOM and hydrogen infrastructure positions it uniquely among industrial gas peers such as Linde and Air Liquide. While all three invest heavily in hydrogen, Air Products’ focus on large-scale projects like NEOM offers a potential first-mover advantage in the emerging green hydrogen export market.

This strategic positioning aligns with global decarbonization trends and could translate into increased market share as demand for clean energy solutions accelerates.

Financial Metrics Comparison#

*Estimated figures based on recent industry reports.

Air Products exhibits superior EBIT margin performance, reflecting operational efficiency despite a smaller scale relative to Linde and Air Liquide.

What Are the Key Financial Risks and Opportunities for Air Products?#

Air Products faces execution risks linked to the NEOM project’s scale, timeline, and offtake uncertainties. The heavy capital expenditures and elevated net debt could pressure financial flexibility if market conditions deteriorate or offtake agreements lag.

Conversely, the company’s expanding EBIT margins and strong operating cash flows provide a buffer to absorb short-term risks. The strategic pivot towards green hydrogen offers substantial long-term growth potential, with analyst estimates projecting revenue growth to approximately $14.8 billion by 2029 and EPS growth to $15.36, indicating market confidence in the transition strategy.

Key Financial Performance Table (FY 2021-2024)#

What This Means For Investors#

Air Products is navigating a critical phase where its pioneering green hydrogen ambitions via NEOM intersect with the realities of commercial execution and financial discipline. The company's strong earnings performance and margin expansion reflect effective management amid substantial capital investment.

Investors should monitor developments in securing additional offtake agreements and infrastructure progress, as these will be pivotal for validating NEOM’s long-term profitability and Air Products’ market leadership in clean energy.

The company's balanced approach—leveraging operational efficiencies while investing heavily in growth—positions it to capitalize on the accelerating energy transition, though with inherent risks related to project scale and market adoption.

Conclusion#

Air Products’ NEOM green hydrogen project exemplifies a bold strategic bet on the future of energy, supported by solid financial underpinnings and operational execution. While offtake uncertainties and large capital expenditures present near-term challenges, the company’s expanding EBIT margins and resilient cash flows provide a strong foundation.

As the green hydrogen market matures, Air Products’ early-mover advantage and scale could translate into significant long-term shareholder value. The company’s ability to manage execution risks, secure firm offtake agreements, and maintain financial discipline will be critical to realizing the full potential of its hydrogen strategy.

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Sources#

• NEOM Green Hydrogen Project Status Update
• Smart Water Magazine on NEOM Green Hydrogen
• Humenglish Business Report on NEOM Offtake Struggles
• Renewables Now on NEOM Offtake Challenges