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D.R. Horton (DHI): Q3 Beat Masks a Cash-Flow Squeeze — What Changed?

by monexa-ai

D.R. Horton beat Q3 2025 EPS by +14.29% but FY2024 free cash flow plunged -51.44%, driven by a $2.92B working-capital swing. Balance-sheet strength cushions the risk.

D.R. Horton Q4 2025 earnings forecast, diversified homebuilder model, declining mortgage rates impact, and homebuilder stocks

D.R. Horton Q4 2025 earnings forecast, diversified homebuilder model, declining mortgage rates impact, and homebuilder stocks

Q3 2025 EPS Surprise and a Troubling Cash-Flow Inflection#

D.R. Horton ([DHI]) reported an outsized quarterly EPS beat on July 22, 2025 — actual EPS $3.36 vs. consensus $2.94, a +14.29% surprise — yet the company's FY2024 financials show a sharp deterioration in cash generation that complicates the headline optimism. On the surface the operational story is one of resilience: revenues rose to $36.8B in FY2024 and net income was $4.76B (FY2024 filing, Nov. 19, 2024). Underneath, however, free cash flow collapsed to $2.02B in FY2024 from $4.16B the prior year, a decline of -51.44%, driven primarily by a $2.92B working-capital outflow in FY2024 (FY2024 cash-flow statement). That tension — earnings momentum versus cash conversion stress — is the defining development investors must parse ahead of the upcoming fiscal catalyst on October 28, 2025 (scheduled earnings announcement).

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Apple’s iPhone 17 rollout and Apple Intelligence will determine if premium pricing and AI-driven Services can restore growth amid China and supply-chain risks.

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Apple iPhone 17 Market Impact: Navigating AI Competition, China Risks, and Investor Valuation

iPhone 17’s premium ASPs and Apple Intelligence shape near-term revenue; China demand and AI adoption will determine whether Services and valuation hold or compress.

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Datadog, Inc. (DDOG): Q2 Acceleration, FCF Strength and AI Observability

Datadog posted a Q2 beat—**$827M revenue, +28% YoY**—and showed exceptional free‑cash‑flow conversion; AI observability and large‑ARR expansion are the strategic engines to watch.

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Delta Air Lines (DAL): Dividend Boost, Cash Flow Strength and Balance-Sheet Tradeoffs

Delta raised its dividend by 25% as FY‑2024 revenue hit **$61.64B** and free cash flow reached **$2.88B**, yet liquidity metrics and mixed margin signals complicate the story.

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Diamondback Energy (FANG): Debt Reduction and Permian Consolidation Reshape the Balance Sheet

Diamondback plans to apply roughly $1.35B of divestiture proceeds to cut leverage as net debt sits at **$12.27B**—a strategic pivot that refocuses the company on Permian upstream and royalties.

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Blackstone Inc.: Growth Surge Meets Premium Valuation

Blackstone reported **FY2024 revenue of $11.37B (+52.82%)** and **net income of $2.78B (+100.00%)** even as the stock trades at a **P/E ~48x** and EV/EBITDA **49.87x**.