Q2 Beat and Upgraded Guidance: The Single Most Important Development#
Expedia Group [EXPE] reported a pronounced quarter that combined an earnings beat with raised full‑year guidance, shifting the conversation from recovery to durable improvement. Adjusted EPS of $4.24 in Q2 2025 exceeded Street consensus of $3.97 by +6.83%, while revenue of $3.79 billion and gross bookings of $30.4 billion reinforced demand resilience, and management raised full‑year revenue and bookings growth ranges as well as margin expectations. Those concrete outcomes — EPS beat, higher bookings, and revised guidance — are the proximate drivers behind renewed analyst upgrades and rising institutional interest after the print (see the company release for details) Expedia Group Q2 2025 Earnings Release.
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This quarter matters because it ties three signals together: top‑line durability, a shift in revenue mix toward higher‑margin B2B products, and measurable operating‑leverage working through to adjusted EBITDA. The combination is meaningful in an industry where growth is often cyclical and heavily marketing‑driven; margin improvement that holds across quarters can be the difference between multiple compression and re‑rating.
Financial performance in context: FY 2024 to Q2 2025 as the launchpad#
To understand the Q2 message, it's necessary to map the latest quarterly tone onto the company’s most recent fiscal results. For FY 2024 Expedia reported revenue of $13.69B, EBITDA of $2.63B, and net income of $1.23B according to the company’s FY filings. Calculating off those figures yields a 2024 EBITDA margin of 19.22% (2.63 / 13.69), an operating margin of 9.64% (1.32 / 13.69) and a net margin of 8.99% (1.23 / 13.69) — all consistent with the narrative of improving profitability that management emphasized during Q2.
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Year‑over‑year revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 computes to +6.58% ((13.69 - 12.84) / 12.84), showing steady top‑line expansion after the pandemic rebound years. Free cash flow in 2024 was $2.33B, which represents roughly +17.03% of revenue (2.33 / 13.69); that conversion of revenue to free cash flow is an underappreciated feature of the model and underpins the company’s ability to buy back shares while funding tech and B2B investments.
At the same time, certain reported TTM ratios in the data package diverge from simple fiscal calculations — most notably various debt and ROE metrics. Where discrepancies exist I rely on the fiscal‑year line items from the 2024 statements for the baseline calculations and call out the differences below.