Executive Summary#

Earnings Resilience Masks Operational Headwinds#

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that exemplify the tension between commodity resilience and operational retrenchment. While net income surged 28 percent year-over-year to $674 million, driven by elevated copper and gold prices, management's guidance revisions paint a starkly different picture of the company's productive capacity and capital flexibility. Full-year copper and gold sales guidance have been trimmed to 3.5 billion pounds and 1.05 million ounces respectively—representing declines of approximately 9 percent and 17 percent from prior guidance—reflecting the ongoing impact of the Grasberg mine suspension that began in September following the fatal incident that claimed seven workers. The company has extended the recovery timeline for Grasberg's Block Cave operation into 2026, reduced full-year capital expenditures by $400 million to $4.5 billion, and signaled that Q4 unit cash costs will spike to $2.47 per pound, a 75 percent jump from Q3's $1.40 per pound.