This diversification thesis rests on two leading indicators: hash-rate trajectory for immediate cash generation and GPU capacity/utilization plus ARR conversion for future higher-margin revenue. Management targets roughly 6,000 GPUs by 2026, split across Sweden, Canada and Paraguay, and intends to convert existing Tier-1 data centers to Tier-3 facilities to accelerate time-to-revenue.
Investors should monitor monthly BTC mined, realized mining margin, GPU utilization rates and any disclosed AI/HPC contract backlogs to gauge the balance and stability of HIVE’s dual-engine model.
Financial Performance and Margin Trends#
HIVE’s FY2025 gross profit of $25.15 million represented a 21.81% gross margin, down from 32.78% in FY2024. Capacity investments in both mining and data-center conversions compressed margins despite modest revenue growth (+0.71% YoY).
Operating expenses rose to $23.54 million, leaving operating income of $1.61 million and a net loss of $3 million as depreciation and financing costs climbed. Adjusted EBITDA was $28.88 million, signaling positive underlying cash generation before capex.
Margin dynamics will hinge on the pace of AI/HPC ARR formation—expected to carry higher per-unit hosting margins—and stable, low-cost power contracts that underpin mining profitability.
| Metric |
FY2025 |
FY2024 |
| Total revenue |
$115.28 M |
$114.47 M |
| Gross profit |
$25.15 M |
$37.52 M |
| Gross margin |
21.81% |
32.78% |
| Operating income |
$1.61 M |
$32.69 M |
| Net income |
–$3 M |
$26.50 M |
| Adjusted EBITDA |
$28.88 M |
$96.72 M |
| AI/HPC revenue |
$10.1 M |
~$3.4 M |
| Bitcoin mined (BTC) |
1,414 |
– |
Source: HIVE FY2025 results press release.
Bitcoin Mining Expansion: Targets and Energy Advantage#
After completing Phase 2 in Paraguay (18 EH/s), HIVE added capacity across its global fleet to hit 22 EH/s by October 2025. The company aims for 25 EH/s by late 2025 and 35 EH/s in 2026, backed by a newly signed 100 MW hydroelectric expansion in Paraguay and incremental ASIC deliveries HIVE targets 35 EH/s press release.
Scale-up to 35 EH/s would represent ~1.7% of global network capacity, potentially producing ~15 BTC/day at current difficulty levels. However, higher hash rate increases depreciation, maintenance and working-capital requirements, keeping margins sensitive to power rates and Bitcoin price.
| Milestone |
Hash rate |
Target date |
Power source |
| Phase 2 Paraguay |
18 EH/s |
Sep 2025 |
Itaipú hydroelectric (Paraguay) |
| Current |
22 EH/s |
Oct 2025 |
Mixed hydro & grid contracts |
| Near-term target |
25 EH/s |
Late 2025 |
100 MW fixed-rate hydro (Paraguay) |
| Longer-term target |
35 EH/s |
End 2026 |
540 MW renewable across footprint |
Sources: HIVE press releases.
Hydroelectric Expansion in Paraguay: Fixed-Rate Power#
The addition of 100 MW of fixed-rate hydroelectric capacity at Yguazú transforms HIVE’s power model from a purchaser to an owner/operator posture. Predictable electricity costs—sourced from Itaipú under long-term agreements—mitigate short-term price volatility, enhance margin visibility and support capital-intensive deployments of both ASICs and GPUs.
By 2026, HIVE anticipates ~540 MW of renewable-energy capacity across Paraguay, Canada and Sweden. The blend of geography and contract structure provides optionality to shift compute workloads to regions with the most favorable economics and reliability.
Key monitoring metrics include realized electricity cost per MWh, uptime/curtailment statistics and the ratio of energy to non-energy operating expenses for both mining and AI/HPC facilities.
AI/HPC Cloud Rollout: GPU Scale and Strategic Partnerships#
HIVE is converting Tier-1 data centers to Tier-3 facilities to accelerate enterprise-grade AI/HPC hosting. Boden, Sweden serves as the blueprint: a nine-month conversion timeline versus three years for greenfield builds, cutting payback cycles and permitting risks HIVE Sweden Tier-1 to Tier-3 conversion press release.
Management targets 2,000 GPUs in Boden, 2,000 GPUs via BUZZ/Bell Canada in Toronto and remaining capacity in New Brunswick and additional European sites, for a 6,000-GPU global footprint by 2026.
Critical leading indicators include GPU utilization rates, the pace of colocation contract signings, any disclosed ARR/backlog figures and tiered SLAs that anchor long-term revenue commitments.
Competitive Landscape and Market Positioning#
HIVE’s renewable-energy footprint across nine time zones and its heritage in large-scale crypto infrastructure differentiate it from pure-play miners and nascent GPU-cloud entrants. Partnerships with Bell Canada’s BUZZ ecosystem grant network reach and enterprise channels, reducing customer-acquisition friction.
Nonetheless, HIVE faces structural risks common to GPU cloud vendors: supply chain constraints for NVIDIA hardware, rapid model obsolescence, and competition from hyperscalers that leverage captive infrastructure at scale.
Actionable competitive monitors include announced enterprise contract wins, disclosed minimum revenue commitments, utilization and uptime metrics, and any segment-level margin disclosures.
Financial Outlook and Key Monitors#
Analyst-modeled revenue is projected to rise from $115 million in FY2025 to $350.5 million in FY2026 and $517.3 million in FY2027, assuming execution of hash-rate and GPU-capacity targets. Forward EV/EBITDA multiples compress from 12.0x TTM to 8.2x in 2026 as scale drives operating leverage in both engines.
HIVE closed FY2025 with a current ratio of 3.42x, net debt/EBITDA of 0.15x and net debt of $31.8 million, indicating balance-sheet flexibility to fund ongoing capex. Free cash flow was negative $157.7 million due to $174.3 million of investments in property, plant and equipment.
Investors should track monthly cash-flow generation from mining, incremental GPU-hosting revenues, any shift in segment-level margins and updates to capex guidance or power-contract terms.
What This Means for Investors#
HIVE’s leap to 22 EH/s and aggressive AI/HPC expansion crystallize its dual-engine thesis: mining delivers immediate cash flow while AI/GPUs offer margin uplift and revenue diversification. The next three quarters will test execution on three fronts—ASIC deployments, GPU-cloud conversions and hydroelectric expansions.
Upside catalysts include faster-than-planned GPU-contract conversions, stabilization of global power costs through fixed-rate hydro, and a rebound in Bitcoin price that amplifies mining cash flows. Downside risks encompass supply bottlenecks for ASICs/GPUs, conversion delays in Sweden or Canada, regulatory pressures on crypto mining and hydrological variability in Paraguay.
The critical barometer of success will be the interplay between mining-driven cash generation and the velocity of AI/HPC ARR formation. Investors should weigh HIVE’s balance-sheet capacity, capex execution and early segment disclosures against broader market demand for enterprise-grade AI infrastructure.