Midday market: Chips lead rebound as VIX slides

Introduction
The tape firmed from the opening bell into midday on Thursday, January 15, 2026, as investors leaned back into semiconductors and select cyclicals while volatility retreated. According to Monexa AI intraday data, major U.S. benchmarks advanced with the tech-heavy Nasdaq outpacing peers as chip stocks rebounded on strong upstream prints and broker support, while banks and asset managers climbed on earnings and flow momentum. Macro headlines remained active—initial jobless claims surprised lower and a narrow U.S. tariff on advanced AI chips made headlines—but the market’s message by lunch was straightforward: risk appetite is cautiously constructive, led by chips, financials, and industrials, with healthcare and staples mixed to weaker. External figures are attributed to sources including Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, and the Financial Times.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

According to Monexa AI, U.S. equities were higher into midday with volatility measures lower. Gains were broad enough to lift the major indices, though leadership skewed toward semiconductors and select financials.

Monexa AI shows the S&P 500 (^SPX) pushing toward fresh year-to-date highs, with an intraday peak at 6,979.48 and a 52-week high at 6,986.33, while the Dow (^DJI) approached its own record zone. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains, consistent with a chip-led rally, and the NYSE Composite (^NYA) set a new intraday 52-week high at 22,877.82. Volatility compressed meaningfully, with the CBOE VIX at 15.42 (−7.94%) and the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) down 3.06%, signaling improved risk tolerance. This backdrop coincided with an upside surprise in U.S. jobless claims and upbeat semiconductor news flow reported by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Beneath the index level, intraday leadership was concentrated. Semiconductor equipment and chipmakers staged outsized advances, while parts of healthcare and defensive staples lagged. The pattern aligns with a selective risk-on session: investors are paying for tangible earnings visibility in semis and for operating leverage in capital markets and asset management, while fading idiosyncratic losers in healthcare.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

The macro calendar tilted constructive for risk assets. Initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ended January 10, a nine‑thousand drop and the lowest since November, reinforcing a resilient labor backdrop, according to Bloomberg and Reuters. That labor signal helped underpin cyclicals and financials into midday, consistent with Monexa AI sector breadth.

Policy headlines centered on central bank independence and a narrow set of new trade measures. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that undermining Federal Reserve independence could cause inflation to come “roaring back,” calling political interference “a mess,” as reported by CNBC. Separately, Reuters reported that President Trump told the outlet he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, reducing near-term uncertainty around Fed leadership and helping stabilize rate-sensitive exposures. On trade and industrial policy, the U.S. moved to impose a 25% tariff on a narrow class of advanced AI chips exported to China, including certain NVDA H200 units, per Reuters. While potentially material for specific cross-border flows, equity response at midday was dominated by strong earnings and capex signals up the semiconductor supply chain.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overseas dynamics were broadly supportive. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led global equity performance early in 2026—up about 7.9% year‑to‑date—benefiting from improving domestic fundamentals and resilient earnings revisions, according to Monexa AI’s synthesis of market commentary reported by the Financial Times. Meanwhile, European risk sentiment found a modest tailwind after EU member states backed a free‑trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc, a move seen as both political and economic in scope, as covered by the Financial Times. The key global catalyst for U.S. tech, however, came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM, which delivered record quarterly results and flagged robust AI-driven demand and elevated 2026 capex, per Reuters. Those datapoints amplified the morning rebound in U.S. semiconductors despite tariff headlines.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI, sector performance by midday showed cyclical leadership with notable divergences within defensives. The following snapshot reflects intraday percentage change since the open.

Monexa AI’s heatmap decomposition, however, showed a sharp positive impulse within Technology, led by semiconductor equipment and chips, with sector standouts including KLAC (+9.49%), AMAT (+8.12%), LRCX (+6.21%), NVDA (+3.16%), and AMD (+5.81%). This contrasts with the sector table above, which shows Technology at −0.15% intraday. The discrepancy likely reflects timing and classification differences within Monexa AI’s underlying datasets—equipment and chips rallied hard, while several large-cap software/platform names were mixed to lower (e.g., enterprise software majors down roughly 1–2%). For transparency, our narrative prioritizes the granular heatmap moves for stock-level insight, while the sector table captures a snapshot of broader sector baskets.

Communication Services was mixed to modestly lower, with META up about 1.25% offset by GOOG/GOOGL down roughly 1.0% and legacy cable softness in CHTR (−2.62%). Streaming bellwether NFLX was modestly higher (+0.54%), while consumer‑facing platforms like DASH were slightly lower (about −1%).

Financials outperformed, led by capital markets and asset managers: MS (+5.81%), IBKR (+5.47%), and BLK (+5.12%), according to Monexa AI. Large money-center banks were firmer, with JPM up about +0.99%. Crypto‑adjacent platforms such as COIN lagged (−3.45%), underscoring style dispersion inside the group.

Consumer Cyclical posted a small gain with internal dispersion. Megacap e‑commerce AMZN rose +1.47%, coffee chain SBUX added +2.06%, and travel names such as MAR climbed +1.30%. Conversely, athletic apparel leader NKE slipped −1.82%. EV bellwether TSLA was modestly higher (+0.77%).

Healthcare skewed lower on idiosyncratic hits to mega-cap pharma and medtech. LLY fell −4.85% and BSX declined −4.35%, while managed‑care names like HUM (+3.19%) and ELV (+2.12%) provided some offset. ABBV was down about −2.14%, highlighting the sector’s single‑name sensitivity.

Industrials advanced, led by construction and airlines. Building‑services leader FIX gained +5.17% and EME rose +4.04%. Airlines, including UAL, rallied +3.72%, while infrastructure services PWR added +3.08%. Heavy equipment bellwether CAT climbed +1.90%, consistent with improving cyclical tone.

Energy was green but uneven. Oilfield services and renewables rallied—BKR gained +3.25% and FSLR rose +4.01%—while some majors were flat to slightly lower, with XOM down −0.13%. Upstream dispersion was evident, with CTRA up +7.18% and APA off −2.23%.

Utilities posted outsized moves within select names: VST surged +6.74%, NRG +5.40%, and CEG +4.06%, suggesting a bid for merchant-power and transition‑linked utilities. Traditional regulated names were more mixed, with XEL −0.73%. Real Estate was constructive, led by commercial and digital infrastructure: CBRE +2.14%, data‑center REIT DLR +1.35% and tower REIT AMT +1.25%, while mall REIT SPG lagged (−1.26%). Data‑center peer EQIX added +0.71%.

Basic Materials posted a small positive on cyclicals (DD +1.77%, NUE +1.69%, STLD +1.48%, CRH +1.30%) offset by lithium weakness, with ALB down −3.24%.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

Financials were front and center. Asset‑management giant BLK reported adjusted EPS of $13.16 versus $12.44 expected and revenue of $7.0 billion versus $6.75 billion expected, with assets under management at a record ~$14 trillion and record quarterly net inflows of $342 billion, per Monexa AI’s compilation of company results and financial media reports. Shares traded more than +5% higher into midday, according to Monexa AI’s heatmap, underscoring the flow bid behind asset managers.

Investment banks were firm after results. MS exceeded estimates with net revenues of $17.9 billion and EPS of $2.68, supported by a 47% year‑over‑year jump in investment banking revenue to $2.41 billion and 10% growth in equities revenues to $3.67 billion. Shares climbed roughly +5.81% by midday, per Monexa AI. GS topped EPS expectations despite a revenue dip, with performance aided by strong trading; pre‑market, shares were indicated lower by about −1%, but subsequent morning reports showed the stock up nearly +4% after the open as investors looked through one‑offs tied to consumer finance, according to Monexa AI’s news synthesis and reporting by Reuters.

In Technology, the catalyst stack was heavy. TSM delivered record earnings and guided robust AI demand with elevated 2026 capex, lifting U.S. semiconductors, according to Reuters. Broker support also helped: RBC initiated NVDA at Outperform with a $240 price target, citing an order backlog exceeding $500 billion and sustained hyperscaler capex over the next 12–18 months, per Monexa AI. Equipment leaders rallied on the read‑through for chip capital expenditures: KLAC +9.49%, AMAT +8.12%—with AMAT’s HBM alignment cited as a structural driver in Monexa AI coverage—and LRCX +6.21%. Chipmakers AMD (+5.81%) and NVDA (+3.16%) advanced as well.

Healthcare was active on single‑name volatility. LLY (−4.85%) and BSX (−4.35%) weighed on the group, while managed care outperformed with HUM (+3.19%) and ELV (+2.12%). The setup argues for idiosyncratic risk management within healthcare rather than sector‑wide calls at midday.

Within consumer and services, dispersion persisted. AMZN (+1.47%) rallied with the tech complex, SBUX added +2.06%, and travel‑exposed UAL (+3.72%) and MAR (+1.30%) extended cyclical momentum, while NKE (−1.82%) underperformed.

Other notable corporate items included adhesives maker FUL topping adjusted EPS but missing on revenue, with shares down more than −3% in pre‑market trading per Monexa AI, and RBLX seeing its price target cut to $85 (Hold) by Jefferies ahead of results, with sentiment focused on the 2026 bookings outlook, according to Monexa AI. In utilities, DUK announced leadership changes in generation and operational excellence and saw a fresh $127 price target from Barclays, while ETR drew a $96 target, both noted by Monexa AI. In asset management, BEN was marked Underweight by Barclays even as the firm emphasized preparations for tokenized finance and reported AUM of $1.68 trillion, per Monexa AI. Event‑driven attention surfaced in enterprise software via OS, which faces a take‑private with shareholder scrutiny; Monexa AI highlighted an approximately $6.4 billion cash deal at $24 per share.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

From the open to midday, the market’s tone improved steadily. According to Monexa AI, a few dynamics stood out. First, volatility reset lower. The VIX fell to 15.42 (−7.94%), and the Russell small‑cap volatility proxy (^RVX) eased −3.06%. This move typically coincides with increasing demand for upside exposure and options‑related supply. Second, the chip‑led rebound exercised broad gravitational pull on growth proxies, lifting the Nasdaq (^IXIC) by +0.87% and helping the S&P 500 (^SPX) add +0.64%.

What changed from the two‑day slide earlier this week was the quality of the catalyst stack. The upside surprise in initial claims, as reported by Bloomberg, reinforced a still‑resilient labor market. At the same time, the semiconductor complex received validation from both the foundry layer—TSM earnings and capex commentary via Reuters—and the broker community—RBC’s Outperform on NVDA citing elevated hyperscaler capex. Even the morning tariff headlines around a 25% levy on a narrow class of advanced AI chips for China‑bound shipments, covered by Reuters, could not derail the rally, suggesting investors distinguished between broad structural demand for AI compute and narrower policy frictions.

Sector‑wise, it was a “selective cyclical” session. Financials rose as capital markets activity and record AUM figures at BLK supported the flow narrative and as MS and GS demonstrated operating leverage to a recovering investment banking and trading cycle, per Monexa AI and Reuters. Industrials participated, with building services and airlines notably strong, reinforcing the idea of an earnings‑led rotation rather than a rates‑only trade. Utilities’ internal dispersion—outsized moves in VST, NRG, and CEG—suggests investors are also willing to pay for cash‑flow visibility tied to power markets and energy transition exposures, even as classic defensives like consumer staples treaded water or sagged slightly (e.g., PG and KHC near −1.13%).

Healthcare’s drag underscores a persistent theme: stock‑specific catalysts dominate. With LLY and BSX down sharply, the message for allocators is not to make blanket sector calls but to underwrite single‑name thesis risk carefully. The same is true in Energy, where the group’s aggregate advance masked major dispersion—from CTRA at +7.18% to APA at −2.23%—reflecting commodity micro and company‑specific factors rather than a uniform oil impulse.

There were a few internal tensions in the data worth flagging. Monexa AI’s sector table showed Technology at −0.15% despite the obvious outperformance of chips and equipment in the heatmap. That conflict likely stems from measurement windows and the offsetting weakness in larger software/platform names, which diluted the equipment surge at the sector basket level. We surface this to keep the lens clear: by stock, the leadership was unequivocally semiconductor‑centric; by sector basket, the day read more mixed for broad technology exposure.

On the policy front, Fed‑watch commentary from CNBC and Reuters kept the macro narrative orderly. Goolsbee’s defense of Fed independence and the White House signaling no intent to remove Chair Powell tamped down immediate policy‑risk chatter, which likely helped sustain the bid in rate‑sensitive areas. Meanwhile, the tariff action, while headline‑grabbing, was sufficiently narrow that equity investors emphasized TSMC’s earnings and capex guidance instead. That sequencing matters for the afternoon: unless new policy details reprice chip supply chains, the burden of proof lies with earnings and guidance across tech and financials.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the scorecard was clear: major indices higher, volatility lower, and leadership concentrated in semiconductors, capital markets, and select cyclicals, according to Monexa AI. The S&P 500 was up +0.64% to 6,970.98, the Dow up +0.74% to 49,512.11, and the Nasdaq up +0.87% to 23,676.16. The VIX fell to 15.42 (−7.94%). Under the surface, strength in KLAC, AMAT, LRCX, AMD, and NVDA set the tone, while financials, led by BLK and MS, reinforced the risk bid. Healthcare and staples were mixed, with notable single‑name decliners.

As the afternoon develops, investors will continue to parse earnings quality in financials and the durability of AI capex in semiconductors, alongside any incremental details on tariff implementation and Fed‑related rhetoric reported by Reuters and CNBC. The immediate setup remains cautiously constructive, as Monexa AI characterizes it, with breadth mixed but pockets of high‑conviction momentum in chips, merchant‑power utilities, and specific industrials. Keeping position sizes disciplined around idiosyncratic healthcare and energy names appears prudent, given the day’s dispersion.

Key Takeaways#

According to Monexa AI, the midday leadership is anchored by semiconductors and financials as volatility resets lower. Jobless claims at 198,000, reported by Bloomberg, supported cyclicals, while Reuters coverage of record TSM earnings and capex reinforced the AI compute buildout narrative. The narrow 25% tariff on certain advanced chips bound for China, per Reuters, did not derail the rally, highlighting investors’ focus on fundamental demand. Within sectors, equipment and chips outperformed even as broad Technology read mixed by some baskets, a discrepancy we flag and reconcile via stock‑level heatmaps. Financials remained a clear winner on earnings and flows, while healthcare’s declines were idiosyncratic. Heading into the afternoon, the market’s constructive tone hinges on incremental earnings detail and policy clarity, with the bias to own high‑quality semis, capital‑markets beneficiaries, and select cyclicals while respecting single‑name risk in healthcare and energy.