Midday market: Tech slumps, energy leads as volatility pops

Introduction#

U.S. equities faded from the open into midday as heavyweight semiconductors dragged major averages while energy, travel, and market‑structure names provided selective offsets. According to Monexa AI’s intraday tape at roughly midday New York time, the S&P 500 (^SPX) was down about -0.97% after an early push toward the highs, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lagged at -1.62%, and the Dow (^DJI) outperformed at -0.35%. Volatility firmed with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) up +10.32% to 19.78 as breadth narrowed and dispersion rose across sectors. The backdrop featured a modest uptick in jobless claims to 212,000 for the latest week and publicly dovish commentary from a Federal Reserve governor calling for four rate cuts this year, developments that traders weighed alongside an ongoing liquidity drain tied to Treasury settlements. Bloomberg reported the claims figure and the rate‑cut remarks in morning coverage, framing a macro tape that is supportive in direction but complicated by near‑term positioning and cash‑flow timing (Bloomberg.

The day’s narrative is dominated by a sharp selloff in AI‑linked hardware following last night’s blockbuster results from NVDA, with weakness spilling into AVGO, LRCX, and other equipment names despite solid cloud momentum at hyperscalers. In contrast, consulting and analytics names like ACN and FICO rallied, financial‑data platforms outperformed, and travel/leisure stocks extended gains. The pattern reinforces a rotation that Monexa AI has highlighted in recent sessions: incremental buying in cyclicals and fee‑based platforms while investors trim exposure to semiconductor‑heavy tech after a multi‑quarter run.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

Monexa AI intraday data show the S&P 500 fading from a morning high of 6947.25 to an intraday low of 6859.73, with volume running below its 50‑day average at this point of the session. The Nasdaq Composite’s underperformance is tied to concentrated declines in AI infrastructure and semiconductor equipment. Volatility is normalizing upward: the ^VIX at 19.78 and ^RVX at 25.73 reflect a firmer bid for downside protection, consistent with rising index dispersion. Reuters likewise characterized early trading as tech‑led downside pressure following the prior two‑day rally (Reuters.

Breadth is mixed but tilts defensive outside of energy and travel. The NYSE Composite (^NYA) is off a milder -0.25%, echoing steadier action in value and dividend cohorts. Notably, the S&P opened at 6944.74 and remains below the 50‑day price average (6896.08) but comfortably above the 200‑day (6529.65), preserving the medium‑term uptrend even as near‑term momentum cools, per Monexa AI.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims rose by +4,000 to 212,000 for the period that included the Presidents Day holiday. Bloomberg reported the move as a modest uptick that keeps claims near historically low levels and broadly consistent with a still‑resilient labor market (Bloomberg. Reaction across rates and equities was restrained; the number neither confirmed a slowdown nor signaled overheating. In policy, Bloomberg also noted remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran suggesting that four rate cuts (roughly 100 bps) may be appropriate this year given progress on inflation (Bloomberg. Equities typically welcome a faster easing glide path, but today’s price action indicates micro‑level earnings and sector narratives are exerting greater influence intraday than the macro track.

Adding a near‑term wrinkle, Monexa AI highlighted an estimated $137 billion in Treasury settlements over the next four trading days that may temporarily drain liquidity from private markets. Historically, such settlement windows have coincided with softer performance in risk assets, particularly equities and crypto. This liquidity dynamic helps explain today’s firmer volatility bid and is consistent with a modest de‑risking tone even as policy rhetoric turns incrementally dovish.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight and early‑morning global headlines were plentiful but had limited direct impact on major U.S. indices by midday. The broader international equity narrative remains one of selective resilience outside the U.S., with valuation‑driven arguments favoring certain developed ex‑U.S. and emerging markets versus U.S. mega‑cap tech in recent days, as summarized by Reuters and the Financial Times in broader market coverage (Reuters, Financial Times. In the U.S. tape, the more immediate driver remains the split between AI‑linked hardware, which is correcting, and services/consulting, which is catching a bid.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

Monexa AI’s sector dashboard shows Technology (-1.88%) and Healthcare (-1.57%) pacing decliners, with Energy (+0.75%) and Industrials (+0.48%) providing ballast. A separate Monexa AI heatmap flagged a milder tech decline earlier, but the table above reflects the more comprehensive sector tally, and we prioritize it to capture the broader drawdown. The dispersion within tech is striking: semiconductors and wafer‑fab equipment are under pressure—NVDA -3.90%, AVGO -5.52%, LRCX -5.96%—even as software/analytics and consulting names rally, with ACN +6.19% and FICO +7.87% intraday. This split underscores concerns about capital‑intensive AI infrastructure spending cycles versus the relatively steadier cash‑flow characteristics of services and analytics.

Healthcare is weighed down by idiosyncratic selloffs. Monexa AI shows UHS -10.73%, A -7.44%, and REGN -3.76%, moves that point to company‑specific drivers rather than a unified sector macro shock. On the other hand, payors and services saw selective strength, with HUM +2.91% and IQV +2.82%.

Energy leadership is broad, consistent with firmer crude and refining margins. Integrateds XOM +0.76% and CVX +0.64% are green, refiners like MPC +2.74% stand out, and upstreams such as APA +4.27% outperform. Solar is softer, with FSLR -4.01%, highlighting the day’s preference for traditional energy and refining exposures.

Consumer Cyclical is mixed to lower, but travel‑adjacent names are strong. EXPE +5.35%, ABNB +3.19%, and BKNG +1.55% indicate robust booking and leisure demand in the tape, while mega‑cap discretionary remains a drag, with TSLA -2.65% and AMZN -1.70%.

Financials are nearly flat overall (-0.06%), masking a notable divergence. Exchange and data names outperform as volatility rises: NDAQ +4.31% and SPGI +2.71% are bid, while asset managers like BLK -2.54% and certain alt‑credit platforms such as APO -3.59% lag. Utilities and Real Estate are softer as rate‑sensitives wobble despite dovish Fed rhetoric, with CEG -2.25%, VST -3.52%, and data‑center REITs DLR -1.97% and EQIX -1.61% underperforming.

Basic Materials shows commodity bifurcation. Battery materials and petrochemicals are weak—ALB -6.94%, LYB -2.27%—while fertilizers and gold miners such as CF +2.22% and NEM +0.97% provide selective offsets.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

The session’s focal point is the AI complex. NVDA shares are lower intraday (-3.90%) even after the company reported what it called its “strongest quarter ever,” with data‑center revenue continuing to surge. The headline numbers and guidance were disclosed by the company last night, and major outlets noted broad sell‑side target hikes this morning even as the stock traded down in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction (NVIDIA IR. The weakness is spilling over to suppliers and peers, including AVGO -5.52%, wafer‑fab equipment like LRCX -5.96%, and server‑exposed names such as SMCI -5.54%, per Monexa AI. In contrast, software and services are faring better, with ACN +6.19% and FICO +7.87%, reinforcing the intra‑tech divergence.

Media and platforms in Communication Services are mixed. Monexa AI flags PSKY +10.01% as a standout despite softer recent guidance headlines, while NFLX is up +2.82% and GOOGL is lower -2.33% following fresh AI product updates. Reuters and the Financial Times have emphasized growing dispersion within the sector as streaming and transaction‑platform resilience offset ad‑heavy mega‑cap wobbles (Reuters, Financial Times.

Within travel and leisure, prints and positioning favor reopening‑adjacent winners. EXPE +5.35% and ABNB +3.19% extend gains that Monexa AI has tied to strong leisure bookings. Lodging REITs such as HST +1.90% echo the theme, while mall REIT SPG +1.30% adds cyclical confirmation on the real estate side.

Healthcare feels idiosyncratic pressure. UHS -10.73% is the day’s notable laggard in the space, while diagnostics and tools move lower on A -7.44%. These outsized moves argue for single‑name diligence over broad sector calls at this juncture.

Select catalysts outside mega‑cap tech deserve attention. In eVTOL, JOBY traded higher (+2.80%) after reporting a narrower‑than‑expected quarterly loss and stronger revenue, with Needham reiterating a constructive stance and a price target of $18, according to Monexa AI and company disclosures. Joby’s recent update pointed to continued progress toward commercialization and partnerships that underpin multi‑year revenue optionality (Joby IR. In dermatology, ARQT is roughly flat (-0.44%) by midday after a substantial earnings beat and higher 2026 sales guidance tied to ZORYVE, as tracked by Monexa AI.

In rate‑sensitives, SBAC is modestly lower (-1.58%) ahead of after‑the‑close results, a reminder that even with dovish Fed commentary, towers and utilities trade on duration and cash‑flow visibility. In materials, MP is little changed (+0.06%) into its report as investors parse shipment dynamics and cost structure. Market‑structure and data names remain bright spots, with NDAQ +4.31% and SPGI +2.71% outperforming as volatility rises and fee visibility remains durable.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

From the opening bell to midday, the tape evolved from a tentative risk‑on to a more defensive, dispersion‑heavy session. The ^SPX opened at 6944.74 and probed the 6947 area before sellers re‑asserted around the AI hardware complex. As ^VIX pushed above 19.5, high‑beta tech underperformed and the ^IXIC slid -1.62%. Monexa AI’s heatmap and sector boards show the same story through a different lens: semiconductor and equipment weakness is the fulcrum of today’s drawdown because of tech’s outsized index weight, while consulting/software, travel, and energy/refining provide meaningful but insufficient offsets.

The macro overlay helps contextualize why volatility rose even as policy rhetoric turned more supportive. Bloomberg’s coverage of 212,000 jobless claims and Fed governor Miran’s preference for four cuts in 2026 aligns with a medium‑term constructive view for duration and rate‑sensitives. Yet, the near‑term $137 billion Treasury settlement schedule flagged by Monexa AI sits at cross‑currents with that thesis, sapping liquidity on the margin and emboldening traders to pay up for optionality and hedges. The net effect is a tape where valuations and cash‑flow timing matter more than top‑down beta: fee‑based platforms and services bid, capex‑intensive hardware offered.

Within technology, the most investable shift today is the divergence between AI “utilities” and AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers such as MSFT (+0.14%), META (+0.17%), and even AMZN (softer at -1.70%) continue to emphasize platform monetization and cloud AI adoption in recent updates, while NVIDIA’s own release underscored relentless demand for data‑center compute. But equity flows are telling you that the capital‑intensive layers—chips, accelerators, wafers, servers—are where investors are reducing risk first when volatility rises. That sequence is consistent with classic late‑upswing behavior in capex cycles: positive fundamentals at the product level but stretched positioning and sensitivity to any guide nuance, creating an asymmetry on big print days.

Outside tech, the session is also testing the durability of the value rotation. Energy leadership is validated again by broad participation across integrateds, E&Ps, and refiners, while renewables underperform. Industrials’ modest strength is not uniform—Monexa AI flags sharp weakness in certain construction services and heavy equipment like EME -9.71% and CAT -2.98%—but airlines and defense continue to print better, with UAL +2.37% and LHX +3.47%. Consumer Defensive is mixed, with a notable outlier rally in SJM +6.71% even as larger staples such as WMT -1.00%, COST -0.60%, and PEP -0.61% slip.

Two risk points emerge from the midday pattern. First, because Technology is a large share of benchmark weight, continued semiconductor/equipment weakness can cap index upside regardless of solid performance elsewhere. Second, Monexa AI’s earlier note that valuation expansion in traditional value cohorts has run hard implies diminished cushion should macro or commodity inputs turn. Neither point argues for wholesale de‑risking, but they do argue for position sizing and selectivity in the afternoon and into the week’s remaining settlement window.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, U.S. stocks lean lower with tech leading to the downside and cyclicals offering partial offsets. The S&P 500 is off -0.97%, the Nasdaq is down -1.62%, the Dow is holding better at -0.35%, and volatility is +10.32% on the ^VIX. Bloomberg’s report of 212,000 jobless claims and dovish Fed commentary helped limit macro damage but did not reverse a micro‑driven pullback centered on AI hardware and select healthcare names. Liquidity considerations tied to Treasury settlements, flagged by Monexa AI at roughly $137 billion through the near term, are a practical constraint on risk appetite and likely to keep hedging demand elevated into the close.

Into the afternoon, the market will watch whether semiconductors can stabilize and whether leadership broadens beyond energy and travel. Post‑close catalysts include towers with SBAC and materials with MP, which matter for duration‑sensitive and EV supply‑chain narratives. Positioning remains the swing factor: with index‑level trend support intact above 200‑day marks, traders are prioritizing cash‑flow visibility and balance‑sheet strength on a day when factor volatility, not headlines, sets the tone.

Key Takeaways#

The intraday playbook is simple but unforgiving. According to Monexa AI, the heaviest pressure sits in semiconductor and AI‑infrastructure pockets, and because of tech’s weight, that pressure spills into the headline averages. Energy, travel, and fee‑based data platforms offer offsets, but not enough to turn the indices green while ^VIX holds near the high teens. Bloomberg’s reporting on 212,000 jobless claims and dovish Fed talk supports the medium‑term case for rate‑sensitives, yet an immediate $137 billion Treasury settlement drain creates a tactical headwind for risk assets and a tailwind for hedging. For investors, that argues for maintaining exposure to quality cyclicals and durable fee franchises like NDAQ and SPGI, while trimming concentration risk in semiconductor equipment and other capex‑intensive names until the tape confirms stabilization. Within tech, the divergence between AI utilities and AI infrastructure is the central signal: platforms and services can hold up on days like today even when the hardware layer does not, a pattern to respect into the afternoon session.

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Attribution: Index, sector, and single‑stock figures are based on Monexa AI intraday data. Macro references for jobless claims and Fed commentary are sourced from Bloomberg; broader session characterization aligns with contemporaneous Reuters market coverage. NVIDIA earnings details sourced from company investor relations disclosures.