Midday Market Update: Dow Record, Tech Slips on AI Capex

Introduction#

By midday on Thursday, December 11, 2025, U.S. equities were split along familiar lines: the Dow set a fresh intraday record while the Nasdaq fell, reflecting a rotation out of mega‑cap tech and into cyclicals, payments, insurers, and materials. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a session and all‑time high of 48,722.98 before easing, while the S&P 500 hovered near flat and the Nasdaq Composite declined as investors digested a sharp selloff in ORCL and weakness across key AI proxies like NVDA and AVGO. The tape also leaned risk‑on beneath the surface: volatility was lower, market breadth favored cyclicals, and several defensive groups participated moderately—an unusual but telling mix for the midday session.

The immediate catalyst was Oracle’s fiscal Q2 (FY26) print and guidance, which reinforced a heavy AI‑infrastructure spending path, stoking questions about near‑term cash generation even as backlog swelled. Oracle’s press release cited total revenue of $16.1 billion, robust cloud growth, and a surge in remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $523 billion, but also signaled elevated capital intensity tied to AI infrastructure buildouts. The combination sent the stock lower intraday and weighed on AI‑linked peers (Oracle press release; see also coverage in the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

The midday tape shows a classic divergence: the Dow up strongly with a fresh intraday record high at 48,722.98, the Nasdaq down on tech and AI infrastructure de‑rating, and the S&P 500 essentially unchanged as sector cross‑currents offset. According to Monexa AI, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 15.43 (-2.16%) and Russell 2000 Volatility (^RVX) at 20.51 (-0.77%) indicate risk appetite remains intact despite tech drawdowns. The NYSE Composite (^NYA) up +0.74%, itself touching a year high today, points to broad strength outside mega‑cap growth.

Intraday leadership came from financials, healthcare insurers, consumer discretionary travel/leisure, and basic materials. Payments leaders V (+4.97%) and MA (+3.98%) paced financials, while managed‑care names including UNH (+2.75%), ELV (+4.81%), and HUM (+4.41%) rallied in tandem. On the downside, AI‑heavy semiconductor proxies and software sold off after Oracle’s update, with NVDA (-2.82%), AVGO (-2.37%), INTC (-3.32%), and AAPL (-0.24%) under pressure. In communications, GOOGL (-1.57%) and GOOG (-1.48%) lagged even as media and marketing names NFLX (+2.07%) and OMC (+3.85%) advanced.

Oracle’s print is the day’s fulcrum. The company delivered robust cloud momentum and a towering RPO, but the heightened AI capex track—highlighted across Tier‑1 outlets—intensified investor scrutiny of free‑cash‑flow timing and return on investment. That tension bled into the broader AI complex, explaining the Nasdaq’s tilt lower despite positive cyclical breadth (Oracle press release; FT; WSJ.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

Morning data added modest cross‑currents. CNBC reported that September wholesale inventories rose +0.5% vs. +0.1% expected, a firmer‑than‑anticipated print that can lift near‑term GDP tracking while complicating inventory‑cycle narratives if final demand doesn’t keep pace (CNBC. Separate headlines flagged a surge in initial jobless claims—the largest since 2020—though that item was labeled a developing story in morning summaries; investors will look for confirmation in the Department of Labor release and revisions before assigning macro weight. Meanwhile, multiple outlets highlighted a further narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit to a five‑year low in September, consistent with stronger net exports and shifting trade patterns (as reflected in morning news roundups compiled by Monexa AI).

Policy narrative remained mixed. Commentary from market strategists emphasized a more hawkish tilt across several global central banks and a strengthening U.S. dollar backdrop, a combination that typically tightens financial conditions at the margin. Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab described global central banks as “turning hawkish,” a stance that can weigh on long‑duration assets and growth equities if sustained. In parallel, market veterans like Howard Marks argued there is “no need for more rate cuts,” framing an extended higher‑for‑longer regime that can favor balance‑sheet strength and cash generative business models over high‑duration growth (Bloomberg via aired remarks summarized in Monexa AI data).

The net intraday effect on equities was straightforward: cyclicals and value tilted up as investors leaned into payments, insurers, materials, and travel; rate‑sensitive tech with stretched AI expectations traded down on capex and cash‑flow scrutiny. Treasury and dollar dynamics were not the primary midday drivers in price terms, but the policy tone reinforced the positioning shift.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight and morning narratives pointed to steady global risk sentiment with a bias toward macro caution. Analysts cited an ongoing AI infrastructure investment cycle that may extend across 2025–2026 but with a longer payback window and heightened funding discipline given rate levels and credit conditions (Reuters. Internationally, a hawkish central‑bank lean and U.S. trade data contributed to a constructive backdrop for the U.S. dollar. None of these macro threads singularly dictated the midday tape; rather, they provided a context for the sector rotation away from long‑duration tech and into cash‑flow‑rich cyclicals and defensives.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI, Basic Materials (+1.64%), Industrials (+1.00%), and Energy (+1.00%) led midday sector returns, while Technology (-0.45%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.19%) lagged. Note a minor discrepancy with the separate heat‑map snapshot, which showed slightly larger gains in materials and discretionary and a modest decline in energy earlier in the session; we prioritize the explicit sector performance series above as our primary time‑stamped measure, and we attribute the divergence to differing intraday time slices and sub‑industry weightings.

Materials strength was broad, with fertilizers and metals prominent. MOS (+7.92%), NEM (+5.23%), CF (+4.22%), and FCX (+3.57%) climbed as commodity‑linked equities outperformed. Industrials saw gains across defense and machinery, with NOC (+2.35%), LMT (+2.39%), and DE (+2.41%) in focus. Energy’s top line read showed a gain, but under the hood the tape was mixed: integrateds XOM (+0.66%) and CVX (+0.21%) were steady; refiners such as VLO (-2.18%) lagged; and services SLB (+2.05%) benefited from an analyst upgrade and cyclicals bid.

Financials were led by the payments duopoly—V (+4.97%) and MA (+3.98%)—with JPM (+1.73%) and insurer CB (+3.39%) adding heft. In healthcare, managed‑care was the standout factor, with CNC (+5.72%), MOH (+5.32%), ELV (+4.81%), HUM (+4.41%), and UNH (+2.75%) all higher. Consumer defensives participated—WMT (+1.59%), PG (+1.03%)—but beverages lagged with KO (-1.64%).

Real estate was constructive, led by storage and towers. PSA (+2.14%), EXR (+2.08%), SBAC (+1.98%), and logistics bellwether PLD (+1.12%) advanced; data‑center leader EQIX (+1.65%) also outperformed. Utilities were slightly softer overall, but most constituents were firm; GEV (-4.86%) was an idiosyncratic drag, offset by gains in NEE (+0.82%), EIX (+1.17%), and AES (+1.81%).

Technology was the primary laggard. The day’s headline mover, ORCL (-12.78%), pressured the group, with AI proxies NVDA (-2.82%) and AVGO (-2.37%) trading off ahead of Broadcom’s earnings after the bell. Legacy chips and platform heavyweights INTC (-3.32%) and AAPL (-0.24%) were lower. Select software bucked the trend, with analytics leader FICO (+4.15%) higher after sustained momentum.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

Oracle’s fiscal Q2 narrative dominated tech. The company cited strong cloud infrastructure growth and a massive RPO backlog—an indicator of contracted future revenue—but paired it with a more aggressive AI capex path, elevating concerns over free‑cash‑flow timing and debt financing. The press release and subsequent coverage underscored the tension between long‑duration opportunity in AI infrastructure and near‑term returns, helping explain the -12% to -14% intraday downdraft and the collateral pressure across AI‑linked equities (Oracle press release; FT; WSJ.

Elsewhere in tech and digital infrastructure, CIEN (+4.35%) rallied after reporting EPS of $0.91 vs. $0.78 estimated and revenue of $1.35 billion, beating expectations, with management highlighting low leverage—helpful positioning in a rate‑sensitive tape (Monexa AI). Data‑center REIT EQIX (+1.65%) saw supportive analyst commentary, with Citi reaffirming a Buy rating and emphasizing the company’s sustainability leadership and AI‑adjacent demand profile (Monexa AI; see also sector performance above). In consumer internet and retail, CHWY (-2.57%) gave back early‑week gains despite a Q3 beat and a new $52 price target from Goldman Sachs; investors appear to be rotating out of smaller e‑commerce as they favor payments and defensives in today’s session (Monexa AI).

In financials, the day’s outsized winners were V (+4.97%) and MA (+3.98%), signaling investor preference for scaled, cash‑rich networks. JPM (+1.73%) added to the group’s momentum, while crypto‑adjacent platforms lagged with HOOD (-8.01%) and COIN (-3.65%) underperforming.

Cyclicals and travel outperformed. Cruise operators NCLH (+7.09%), RCL (+6.59%), and CCL (+6.23%) rallied in unison, consistent with resilient leisure demand. Home improvement bellwether HD (+3.19%) and quick‑service leader CMG (+2.68%) also advanced. In healthcare, managed‑care leadership was broad‑based as noted, reflecting a bid for defensive‑cyclical growth at reasonable multiples.

Energy was mixed but constructive at the index level. Services major SLB (+2.05%) benefited from a broker upgrade and improved sentiment around upstream capex, while integrateds XOM (+0.66%) and CVX (+0.21%) stabilized group performance. Refiners such as VLO (-2.18%) lagged intraday, reflecting spread dynamics and idiosyncratic pressure.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

From the opening bell, the day belonged to the rotation tape. The Dow’s +1.34% surge to a record contrasted with a -0.59% drop in the Nasdaq as the market recalibrated AI‑capex expectations. The VIX at 15.43 (-2.16%) suggests the move was orderly, not a disorderly risk‑off; rather, investors expressed views via sector allocation. Early‑session weakness in mega‑cap tech deepened following Oracle’s Q2 disclosures and commentary, while payments, insurers, travel, and materials caught a persistent bid. This divergence is consistent with a higher‑for‑longer macro frame highlighted by strategists this week and with the notion that AI capex cycles may extend over time with more disciplined ROI hurdles (Reuters.

Two dynamics stand out. First, the market is treating AI infrastructure exposure asymmetrically. Companies perceived as cash‑flow beneficiaries of AI demand but not saddled with outsized capex today—payments rails, data‑center landlords with prudent balance sheets, and network equipment names following strong earnings—are being rewarded. That helps explain the midday outperformance in V, MA, EQIX, and CIEN. Second, the market is penalizing companies where AI opportunity is tethered to heavy, front‑loaded capital outlays or where backlog conversion and free‑cash‑flow timing remain uncertain—hence the drawdown in ORCL and the sympathy weakness in semis and platform names.

At the same time, the tape preserved a defensive undercurrent. Staples like WMT (+1.59%) and PG (+1.03%) advanced, and utilities were mostly firm ex‑idiosyncratic GEV (-4.86%). That combination—risk‑on in cyclicals, steady defensives, and tech pullback—signals investors are not de‑risking outright; they are re‑risking selectively toward balance‑sheet quality, cash return, and clearer near‑term earnings visibility.

In materials, leadership from MOS, NEM, CF, FCX, LIN (+2.03%), and APD (+2.01%) points to constructive commodity expectations and industrial demand. The move in gold miners alongside copper and fertilizers suggests this is not a narrow beta chase; rather, it reflects a broader allocation toward real‑asset exposure in an environment where nominal growth and policy are in flux.

Real estate’s midday tone underscores a differentiated AI trade outside pure‑play semis. Storage leaders PSA and EXR benefited from consistent demand and pricing power, while towers like SBAC and logistics leader PLD advanced. Crucially, EQIX demonstrates how investors are expressing AI infrastructure exposure via cash‑flowing, scale data‑center platforms with strong sustainability credentials, a theme echoed by analyst commentary tracked by Monexa AI.

Finally, in discretionary, the renewed strength of cruises (NCLH, RCL, CCL and large‑ticket home improvement (HD indicates resilient consumer outlays, even as several mega‑cap, tech‑adjacent consumer names lagged. That divergence highlights how the market is rewarding visible demand and operational leverage over longer‑dated innovation narratives for today’s session.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the U.S. market exhibited a clear rotation: the Dow at a record and VIX lower (-2.16%) conveyed constructive risk sentiment, while the Nasdaq (-0.59%) reflected a targeted de‑rating of AI‑heavy tech following Oracle’s Q2 disclosures. Sector leadership (materials, financials, insurers, selected industrials and travel) and participation from defensives painted a “cautiously bullish” picture in aggregate, as characterized by Monexa AI’s breadth readings.

Into the afternoon, investors will watch three near‑term catalysts. First, follow‑through in Oracle and sympathy moves across AI infrastructure and semis—especially with AVGO earnings due after the close—will set the tone for the broader tech complex (see same‑day previews and coverage compiled by Monexa AI). Second, any clarification on labor data and the wholesale inventory impulse could influence the growth‑versus‑inflation debate at the margin; remember, the inventories beat was +0.5% vs. +0.1% estimate (CNBC. Third, watch rates and the dollar for confirmation of the global “hawkish tilt” narrative that has favored cash‑flowing cyclicals and quality defensives over high‑duration growth this week (Reuters.

For positioning, the day’s message is straightforward. Maintain respect for tech concentration risk—today illustrated how one mega‑cap software/infrastructure print can swing the broader complex—while recognizing that investor demand for visible cash returns and capital discipline is alive and well. Exposure to payments, insurers, materials, and selective industrials continued to work intraday, as did data‑center real estate with disciplined growth. On the other side, AI winners with heavy front‑loaded capex may remain volatile until backlog conversion and free‑cash‑flow timing are clearer, a point highlighted across coverage by the Financial Times and WSJ in the wake of Oracle’s update.

Key Takeaways#

• The midday split is stark: Dow up +1.34% to a record, Nasdaq down -0.59%, S&P 500 flat, with VIX at 15.43 (-2.16%) signaling orderly rotation (Monexa AI).
• Oracle’s Q2 reinforced strong cloud growth and a massive $523B RPO but also heavier AI capex, pushing ORCL (-12.78%) lower and weighing on AI peers; see Oracle press release, FT, and WSJ.
• Sector leadership favored materials, financials/payments, insurers, industrials, and travel/leisure; defensives participated, while tech and select consumer cyclicals lagged (Monexa AI).
• Earnings and updates that added to positive dispersion included CIEN (+4.35%)) and EQIX (+1.65%); energy services SLB (+2.05%) rose on an upgrade (Monexa AI).
• Macro: wholesale inventories +0.5% vs. +0.1% expected, jobless claims headlines flagged as a developing story, and a five‑year‑low trade deficit framed the growth mix; global central‑bank tone remained hawkish (CNBC; Reuters; Monexa AI).
• Actionable frame for the afternoon: favor balance‑sheet quality and cash‑return leaders in cyclicals and defensives; manage tech concentration risk until AI capex ROI visibility improves, and watch AVGO earnings for a read‑through to the AI infrastructure complex.