Midday market update: Dow sets record as chips slump

Midday Market Overview — Friday, August 15, 2025#

U.S. equities carved a split tape into lunch as investors digested an in-line retail sales print, a notably weaker consumer sentiment reading, and fresh policy signals that are ricocheting across semiconductors and financials. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new intraday record at 45,203.52 before moderating, the S&P 500 briefly tagged a record 6,481.34 before flattening out, and the Nasdaq Composite faded as chip-equipment stocks slid on cautious guidance from AMAT and tariff noise pressured select megacaps (NVDA, AVGO. The morning’s macro tone was anchored by July retail sales up +0.50% month-on-month (per the U.S. Census Bureau; see Census, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 58.6 from 61.7, reflecting heightened worries about inflation and employment (per UMich and coverage by Reuters.

Policy headlines continued to steer sector dispersion. Talk of sharply higher U.S. semiconductor tariffs and potential carve-outs for domestic investment kept the chip complex volatile, with reports that the administration is exploring a stake in INTC helping that stock buck the selloff (as discussed on CNBC. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, said it would integrate oversight of banks’ crypto/fintech activities into its standard supervision, scrapping a standalone “novel activities” program, a procedural shift that coincided with relative resilience in market-structure names and ongoing pressure in traditional lenders (reported by Reuters.

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 opened at 6,477.38, hit a fresh intraday and year high of 6,481.34, and then slipped modestly, reflecting the drag from big semicap decliners. The Dow outperformed on the back of healthcare strength and selective industrials, registering a record high at 45,203.52 before easing. The Nasdaq declined -0.34% as the chip equipment complex sold off, partly offset by modest gains in mega-cap platforms within Communication Services. Volatility nudged up intraday with the VIX near 14.86 (per Cboe.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

The July retail sales report landed in line at +0.50% month-on-month, with ex-auto sales at +0.30%, tempering from a previously revised +0.80% in June (per U.S. Census Bureau; see Census. That steadiness in headline consumer spend contrasted with consumer sentiment sliding to 58.6 in the preliminary August University of Michigan survey, down from 61.7, as respondents cited ongoing inflation and employment concerns (UMich; covered by Reuters. The split message—spend holding up while sentiment sags—kept discretionary and staples mixed into midday.

From the policy front, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that earlier rate-cut expectations need to be reassessed in light of new tariff signals, indicating that the policy path remains data- and policy-dependent (remarks reported by Bloomberg. Separately, the Federal Reserve announced it would scrap the special “novel activities” supervision program for banks and instead integrate oversight of crypto/fintech exposures into regular supervision, removing a distinct layer but not attention to the activities themselves (reported by Reuters. Finally, market liquidity remains a talking point as the Fed’s reverse repo facility nears depletion and the Treasury General Account refill is expected to lower reserve balances, a dynamic that can incrementally tighten financial conditions and weigh on high-duration equities (context via Bloomberg.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Trade policy headlines continued to dominate. Reports indicated the administration is considering steep semiconductor tariffs alongside potential breaks for companies investing domestically, with separate media noting the White House is weighing a stake in INTC to shore up onshore capacity (coverage via CNBC and Reuters. The signal to markets: policy risk remains high for globalized chip supply chains, but domestic manufacturers could secure relative advantages if carve-outs materialize. That bifurcation was visible intraday as INTC rallied while major equipment suppliers tumbled.

Commodities were mixed. Crude oil traded roughly -1% on the day even as Energy equities advanced, a reminder that equity flows can reflect positioning and policy themes beyond spot commodity moves (price action context via Bloomberg.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI, Energy led decisively at midday, driven by outsized gains in solar and renewables despite softer crude. Enphase Energy ENPH jumped about +8.78% and First Solar FSLR gained +8.21%, while integrated major Chevron CVX climbed +1.58% and ConocoPhillips COP added +0.46%. Exxon Mobil XOM was slightly softer at -0.28%, underscoring the day’s theme: energy transition plays led the tape even as oil traded lower (market context via Bloomberg.

Communication Services advanced with Alphabet GOOGL and GOOG up roughly +1.55% and Meta Platforms META higher by +1.13%, a continuation of the ad-recovery impulse that has stabilized the group this summer (coverage: Financial Times, Bloomberg. Wireless and cable also found bids, with T-Mobile TMUS up +2.10% and Charter CHTR up +1.75%, even as some smaller media names lagged.

Healthcare climbed as UnitedHealth UNH surged +13.55%, with insurers and selective biotech strength adding breadth: Moderna MRNA rose +6.52%, Centene CNC gained +5.85%, Elevance ELV added +5.13%, and Eli Lilly LLY was up +1.93%. Defensive tone and company-specific catalysts underpinned the move (coverage context via Reuters.

Technology was the principal laggard, down -0.56% intraday. The pain centered on semiconductor equipment after Applied Materials AMAT guided below expectations, sliding -13.90%. Peer equipment names KLA KLAC fell -8.10% and Lam Research LRCX lost -6.90%. Megacaps were mixed, with Nvidia NVDA off -1.34%, Broadcom AVGO down -2.73%, while Microsoft MSFT and Apple AAPL were modest. Notably, Intel INTC rallied +6.90%, diverging on policy chatter about domestic investment support (coverage via CNBC.

Financial Services declined -1.20%, with large lenders under pressure. Wells Fargo WFC fell -2.48% and Capital One COF dropped -2.48%, while JPMorgan JPM slipped -1.30%. In contrast, market-structure firms outperformed, with Cboe CBOE up +1.29% and MarketAxess MKTX up +1.26%—a nod to healthy volumes and volatility-linked activity (see Cboe.

Consumer Cyclical was mixed, down -0.37%. Discretionary retail pockets outperformed as Tapestry TPR rose +4.36%, eBay EBAY gained +2.66%, and Lululemon LULU added +1.65%, contrasting with weakness in heavyweights Tesla TSLA at -1.63% and Home Depot HD at -0.74%. Amazon AMZN was slightly softer at -0.22% despite continued expansion of same-day grocery delivery (coverage via Bloomberg.

Industrials hovered near flat (-0.01%), reflecting dispersion: Southwest LUV gained +2.90% and Deere DE added +2.33%, while Howmet HWM fell -2.43%, 3M MMM lost -2.27%, and Caterpillar CAT declined -1.58%.

Consumer Defensive slipped -0.85%. Discounter pressure persisted, with Dollar General DG down -2.12% and Dollar Tree DLTR off -1.90%, while premium beauty Estée Lauder EL gained +2.09% and staples leaders PepsiCo PEP and Procter & Gamble PG rose +1.42% and +0.82%, respectively.

Utilities declined -0.85%, with notable winners NextEra NEE at +3.78% and AES AES at +3.55%, offset by losses in Vistra VST -2.13%, Con Edison ED -2.02%, and Duke Energy DUK -1.30%.

Real Estate advanced +0.54% on strength in towers, data centers, and storage—American Tower AMT +1.96%, Equinix EQIX +1.11%, Public Storage PSA +1.04%, and Prologis PLD +0.71%—while timber REIT Weyerhaeuser WY lagged -1.16%.

Basic Materials edged -0.15% intraday, though selective names outperformed: Albemarle ALB +1.41%, Newmont NEM +1.18%, Dow DOW +0.94%, Linde LIN +0.62%, against Sherwin-Williams SHW -0.70%.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings and Key Movers#

Semiconductor equipment set the tone. Applied Materials AMAT beat on its fiscal Q3 top and bottom lines—revenue of about $7.30 billion and EPS of $2.48—but issued Q4 revenue guidance of $6.20–$7.20 billion and EPS of $1.91–$2.31, both below consensus, citing China capacity digestion and policy uncertainty. Shares fell roughly -13.90% by midday (company commentary and analyst coverage via Reuters and Investing.com. The read-through weighed on peers KLA KLAC (-8.10%) and Lam Research LRCX (-6.90%).

In software and services, Globant GLOB beat Q2 estimates but guided below on revenue and EPS, and shares fell about -14.00% (coverage: Bloomberg.

In storage, SanDisk SNDK delivered a Q4 beat but provided a softer gross margin outlook for the September quarter, sending shares down more than -7% despite revenue guidance above consensus (coverage via Reuters.

Within consumer staples, Flowers Foods FLO posted EPS of $0.30 vs. $0.29 expected and revenue near $1.24 billion, slightly below forecasts, highlighting a familiar 2025 staple theme: cost control offsetting mixed volumes (company results reported by Bloomberg.

On the sell-side actions front, Wingstop WING was upgraded to Strong Buy with a $420 price target by Raymond James on operational throughput gains and easing comps into Q4 (coverage: CNBC. Spire SR was downgraded to Underperform at BofA following its Piedmont Natural Gas acquisition, with concerns around funding and synergies (coverage: Reuters. Noodles & Company NDLS was cut to Hold at Benchmark after a wider-than-expected loss. JD.com JD saw its price target trimmed to $40 at Mizuho but retained an Outperform rating on continued core-retail momentum (coverage: Bloomberg.

In payments, Adyen ADYEY reported a sizable revenue beat near $1.28 billion with a fractional EPS miss, assuaging some concerns following tariff-related weakness earlier in the week (coverage via Financial Times. HIVE Digital HIVE set guidance a few days ahead of its earnings, with consensus calling for -$0.08 EPS on roughly $43.05 million in revenue (coverage: Reuters.

Finally, positioning chatter added fuel to the day’s outsized healthcare move as filings indicated Berkshire Hathaway reduced AAPL exposure and added to UNH, consistent with the sector’s leadership bid into midday (coverage: Reuters.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts, Momentum, and What’s Driving the Tape#

From the opening bell, the S&P 500’s early pop to a fresh record high was quickly met with selling in chip equipment after AMAT’s weak forward guide reframed near-term wafer fab equipment (WFE) demand expectations. The result was a textbook dispersion day: the Dow benefitted from Healthcare leadership and selective industrials, the Nasdaq slipped on semis, and the S&P settled slightly lower as Technology’s heavy index weight offset advances in Energy, Healthcare, and Communication Services. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the VIX uptick to 14.86 and RVX at 22.50 reflected a modest rise in hedging demand rather than a wholesale de-risking.

The macro cadence was balanced. Retail sales growth of +0.50% signaled consumption resilience, but UMich sentiment at 58.6 highlighted forward-looking caution among households. That combination likely explains why defensives (staples, healthcare services) and cash-flowing renewables outperformed, even as discount retailers lagged. In other words, investors leaned into visible earnings durability and policy-linked beneficiaries, while trimming exposure to credit-sensitive financials and capex-exposed semicap names pending clarity on tariffs and China demand digestion.

Within Technology, the market is now pricing a wider policy band. Reports of potential triple-digit chip tariffs alongside “breaks” for domestic investment create a scenario in which onshore manufacturers like INTC may be relative winners, while globalized supply-chain models and equipment sellers tied to China expansions could face lumpier demand. That framework is consistent with today’s tape: INTC +6.90% versus AMAT -13.90%, KLAC -8.10%, and LRCX -6.90% (policy context via CNBC and Reuters. For multi-asset allocators, this means event risk management—including position sizing and hedges around policy dates—remains critical.

Another undercurrent is liquidity. Commentary that the Fed’s reverse repo facility is nearly depleted and that ongoing TGA rebuilds are pulling reserves adds a low-frequency headwind for long-duration growth assets and credit (macro context via Bloomberg. The day’s Financials softness in big lenders aligns with a tighter-liquidity, flatter-growth concern set, whereas exchanges and electronic trading platforms outperformed, a recurring defensive in microstructure.

In Energy, the renewables surge despite weaker crude illustrates how policy and project visibility can dominate tape action over spot price volatility. Gains in ENPH +8.78% and FSLR +8.21% were paired with advances in CVX and COP, reinforcing the idea that energy diversification—not just oil beta—is drawing capital as investors prepare for possible tariff spillovers and supply chain re-shoring.

The Consumer picture remains nuanced. With sales in line but sentiment lower, the market rewarded select value and premium niches—TPR and LULU—and digital marketplaces like EBAY, while big-ticket cyclicals and EVs like TSLA underperformed. That pattern is consistent with a consumer trading down in some channels while still spending, and it places a premium on inventory discipline and promotion management heading into the fall shopping season (macro coverage via Financial Times.

Finally, the Healthcare surge, led by UNH and insurers, shows a rotation-to-stability bid as investors favor pricing power, membership visibility, and claims management stories into late Q3. With Berkshire tilting exposure toward UNH and away from AAPL (per filings; reported by Reuters, the move also reflects some profit-taking in mega-cap tech after a powerful multi-week run and reallocation into defensive growth.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday, the Dow held near record territory on Healthcare strength, the S&P 500 eased as semicap weakness offset gains in Energy, and the Nasdaq slipped on chip underperformance. The macro print showed steady spending but fragile confidence, and policy risk remained front-and-center in Technology and Financials—from chip tariffs and domestic-investment incentives to the Fed’s supervisory tweaks and the liquidity backdrop.

Into the afternoon, the market’s key swing variables remain clear:

• The policy tape: any additional detail on chip tariffs, potential carve-outs, or the reported INTC investment consideration could extend the bifurcation between domestic-chip beneficiaries and globalized supply-chain players (coverage via CNBC and Reuters.
• Semicap read-throughs: after AMAT, watch peers for incremental commentary on China digestion, export-license backlogs, and leading-edge order timing (sector coverage via Reuters.
• Liquidity tone: monitor rates, dollar, and VIX moves as the RRP/TGA dynamic evolves (macro context via Bloomberg.
• Consumer tells: despite solid July sales, sentiment deterioration argues for selectivity—favor models with pricing power, traffic drivers, and balance sheet flexibility.

In short, the tape remains mixed-to-cautiously-positive. Index highs are being tested, but breadth is selective, and policy plus guidance quality are deciding winners and losers intraday.

Key Takeaways#

• According to Monexa AI intraday data, the Dow hit a fresh record high at 45,203.52, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased as chip-equipment weakness weighed.
• Retail sales rose +0.50% in July (Census), but UMich sentiment fell to 58.6, signaling cautious households even as spending persists (UMich; Reuters.
• Semiconductor policy risk is driving a bifurcated tech tape: INTC up +6.90% on potential domestic-investment support chatter versus AMAT -13.90% and peer equipment selloffs (coverage via CNBC, Reuters.
• Healthcare and Energy led, with UNH +13.55%, ENPH +8.78%, and FSLR +8.21%, highlighting rotation toward defensive growth and policy-backed renewables.
• Financials were soft in big lenders, while market-structure names like CBOE and MKTX rose, consistent with a tightening-liquidity narrative (context via Bloomberg.
• Positioning guidance: manage event risk around tariff headlines, size semicap exposure carefully, lean into defensive growth and renewables where fundamentals support, and prefer balance sheet strength in consumer-facing names.