Midday Market Update: Tech Slips, Energy Leads, VIX Pops

Monday, December 29, 2025 — Midday Recap#

U.S. equities leaned lower into the lunch hour as early strength in Energy offset but couldn’t fully counter broad softness across mega-cap Technology and pockets of weakness in Materials and Financials. According to Monexa AI intraday data, the S&P 500 (^SPX) is down modestly with volatility firming, while sector internals show clear rotation toward defensives and commodity-linked groups. Headlines around artificial intelligence hardware strategy, a sharp pullback in silver after a historic rally, and firmer U.S. housing activity helped set the tone. Nvidia-related news dominated the tech tape as investors parsed a non-exclusive licensing arrangement for Groq’s inference technology and a separate $5 billion purchase of Intel shares disclosed in a securities filing. These developments, along with a pickup in the CBOE Volatility Index, framed a cautious, rotation-heavy session by midday. Where cited, external headlines come from credible outlets including Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times; intraday pricing and breadth are from Monexa AI’s live market feed.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

As of midday, the S&P 500 is off -0.57% and the Dow is lower by -0.62%, while the Nasdaq Composite underperforms at -0.80% as mega-cap Technology remains a drag, according to Monexa AI intraday data. The NYSE Composite is down -0.40%. The volatility complex is bid with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) up +7.57% to 14.63 and the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) up +4.37% to 19.33, signaling a modest risk-off bias into year-end. Breadth is mixed but risk is concentrated where market-cap weighting is heaviest, leaving indices sensitive to relatively small moves in mega caps.

Monexa AI’s heatmap shows the Technology sector—the market’s largest weight—trading broadly softer intraday with outsized influence from NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL. Energy is the exception, advancing on commodity-linked strength. Materials are weaker on miner drawdowns as silver prices retreat after recent records. The session tone is consistent with a “cautious/rotational” setup: investors are adding exposure to defensives and cyclicals tied to commodities while trimming high-beta tech.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

Housing offered a constructive signal: November pending-home sales rose +3.30% month over month to 79.2, marking a fourth straight monthly gain, according to Monexa AI’s read of National Association of Realtors data and concurrent reporting from mainstream outlets such as Reuters. This indicator, which tracks contract signings and leads closed sales by one to two months, aligns with stabilization narratives seen in mortgage activity and builder commentary in Q4. By midday, homebuilder equities were mixed as the tape weighed broader risk sentiment against the incremental positive signal from housing demand.

On the consumer credit front, pressures continue to build. Monexa AI highlights that U.S. student loan debt stands at a record $1.65 trillion, roughly 30% of non-mortgage consumer debt, with serious delinquencies (90+ days) up to 14.30% in Q3 2025 following the end of pandemic-era payment pauses. A resumption of wage garnishments is expected to reinforce collections. While the intraday equity impact is diffuse, such data maintain a background headwind for discretionary spending and certain consumer and fintech exposures. We note that detailed sector-level demand implications are not quantified by Tier-1 outlets in the last 48 hours; still, the direction of travel on delinquencies is clear and warrants monitoring across discretionary retail and credit-sensitive financials.

From a policy and rates perspective, commentary at Charles Schwab last week characterized recent stronger GDP data as positive for the inflation fight but unlikely to materially shift the near-term rate path, a view reiterated in their outlook for 2026 (see Charles Schwab analysis; source: Charles Schwab. That aligns with today’s moderate factor rotations—defensive yield proxies are firmer while banks and rate-sensitives are uneven. No new FOMC communications hit the tape after the open.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei 225 held near 50,500 as investors locked in gains into light holiday liquidity, according to Monexa AI and broad overnight coverage from outlets such as Bloomberg and Reuters. The index remains above key moving averages, consistent with an intact uptrend even as near-term profit-taking emerges.

Commodities-driven headlines intersected with geopolitics and precious metals. After a historic rally that took silver to fresh highs, spot prices slid more than -6.00% in morning trade, per Monexa AI’s commodity feed and morning roundups from Yahoo Finance (Yahoo Finance. Gold, a relative outperformer this year, also eased. The reversal weighed on miners with gold and silver exposure. Separately, headlines noted ongoing geopolitical risk around Russia-Ukraine and high-level dialogue, which coincided with bid tone across select U.S. oil equities, according to Monexa AI’s company news feed and broader coverage on CNBC (CNBC. While causality is always multifactorial intraday, the rotation into Energy is consistent with commodity-linked strength and macro hedging into year-end.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI’s sector tape, Energy leads by midday, with large integrateds and upstream producers providing lift. The upside breadth spans integrated, E&P, and select refining. By contrast, Healthcare and Financial Services lag, and Technology is narrowly positive on the sector line despite notable weakness in several mega caps, underscoring heavy intraday dispersion within the group.

There is a visible discrepancy between sector-level totals and constituent-level dynamics flagged by the heatmap. While the sector table shows Basic Materials up +0.43%, Monexa AI’s heatmap indicates pronounced miner weakness—exemplified by outsized declines in Newmont—suggesting that strength elsewhere in the sector (for example, industrial gases) is offsetting metals drawdowns at the sector aggregate. We prioritize the live sector totals from Monexa AI’s index-calibrated feed for performance measurement, while using the heatmap to frame idiosyncratic drivers within sectors.

Technology remains the pivot. Monexa AI shows NVDA softer intraday at approximately -1.70% as investors digest a non-exclusive licensing arrangement that brings Groq’s inference IP into Nvidia’s orbit alongside reported talent additions and a distinct securities filing showing Nvidia purchased $5 billion of Intel shares. Reuters has reported on the Nvidia–Groq arrangement and its non-exclusive nature while citing a CNBC-reported transaction value around $20 billion; official terms remain undisclosed (Reuters. Within tech, there are pockets of resilience—networking and high-speed connectivity proxies such as Arista appear firmer on the day—while mega caps MSFT and AAPL trade modestly lower per Monexa AI’s live feed. We note a data quirk on some heatmap panels referencing “SNDK,” a legacy symbol retired following SanDisk’s acquisition; we attribute the storage drawdown to broader hardware softness and not to a standalone SNDK listing.

Energy gains are broad-based, with XOM and upstream peers FANG and DVN higher intraday, consistent with commodity-linked flows and defensive rotation, according to Monexa AI. Refining bellwethers like VLO also contribute to sector breadth, suggesting strength across the value chain rather than a single subsector. Utilities, another defensive pocket, are also bid with multiple large-cap constituents advancing.

Financials are weak on the day with several major banks trading lower by roughly -1.00% to -1.60% intraday—C, BAC, and JPM among notable drags—per Monexa AI. This sits in contrast to 2025’s relative outperformance in banks and commentary from the sell side that eventual rate cuts by 2026 could benefit the group. CNBC’s morning programming featured RBC’s Gerard Cassidy reiterating a constructive longer-term setup for U.S. banks contingent on easing policy and better NIM trends (CNBC. That said, today’s tape is straightforwardly risk-off for higher-beta financials.

Consumer Cyclical lags with travel and discretionary retail softness—TSLA down around -1.55% and cruise lines like NCLH under pressure—while idiosyncratic winners such as LULU and EBAY trade better intraday, highlighting the importance of stock selection. Consumer Defensive is nearly flat with gains in WMT, KO, and PEP offsetting a minor dip in COST. Real Estate is essentially unchanged on the day, with data-center REITs like DLR firmer while towers like AMT lag.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings or Key Movers#

Nvidia remains the session’s focal point. According to Reuters and company announcements, Nvidia has entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement tied to Groq’s inference technology and is adding leadership talent from Groq, while Groq remains independent (Reuters. Monexa AI’s company feed also notes a separate Nvidia purchase of $5 billion in Intel shares, confirmed via securities filing this morning. The licensing structure underscores Nvidia’s push to broaden its AI inference footprint beyond GPU-centric architectures, a development that could reshape competitive dynamics across training and inference. Intraday, NVDA trades lower as investors price execution complexity against ecosystem expansion.

In Communication Services, Baird trimmed its price target on META to $815 from $820 while maintaining Outperform, flagging near-term sentiment risks but pointing to potential catalysts tied to 2026 product and AI model updates, according to Monexa AI’s compilation of sell-side notes. Monexa AI’s heatmap shows META modestly lower by midday, consistent with sector pressure in large-cap ad-driven platforms; TMUS is an outlier to the upside.

In Semis and AI infrastructure, Monexa AI cites BofA’s reiterated Buy on NVDA tied to the Groq news, and ongoing analyst focus on data-center connectivity plays, including MRVL, where Wall Street commentary highlights AI optics and accelerator adjacency. The narrative is consistent: AI monetization is shifting toward scaled inference alongside cloud spend on training, elevating the importance of low-latency, cost-efficient deployment.

Healthcare/Pharma saw an important regulatory milestone last week: AGIO rallied after the U.S. FDA approved mitapivat (AQVESME) across both transfusion-dependent and non-transfusion-dependent thalassemia, as reported by Reuters in the run-up to today’s session. BofA raised its price target alongside approval, according to Monexa AI’s coverage. Biotech was more mixed by midday, with MRNA modestly lower and LLY and ABBV showing relative resilience.

Homebuilders are in focus after the pending-home sales beat. Raymond James downgraded KBH to Market Perform on strategic and competitive execution risk as the company pivots back to primarily build-to-order. The downgrade highlights the complexity of navigating incentives, cycle times, and entry-level demand in a market where peers are still using mortgage buydowns to move spec inventory. Monexa AI’s sector view shows Real Estate roughly unchanged by midday, suggesting a nuanced tape where housing-linked equities are trading stock-specific narratives against incrementally better lead indicators.

Energy services also attracted attention. BMO reiterated Market Perform on HAL, noting resilient North America trends even as global upstream spending faces a modest pullback through 2026, according to Monexa AI’s aggregation of sell-side estimates. The broader Energy complex’s intraday outperformance suggests investors are leaning into commodity and services exposure as a portfolio ballast.

Materials and miners underperformed on the precious-metals reversal. Monexa AI notes that Newmont has been among the largest decliners, aligning with morning price action that saw silver down more than -6.00% after a record run. As is typical on days like today, higher-beta silver-levered names saw amplified moves, while industrial gases, a defensive corner of Basic Materials, showed relative strength.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

Sentiment has drifted from a neutral open toward a mild risk-off posture by midday, with volatility indicators rising and sector leadership rotating into Energy and Utilities. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 opened at 6,903.60 and slipped into negative territory as mega-cap Technology softened following a cluster of AI hardware headlines. The heart of today’s narrative is concentration risk: Technology’s share of index market cap means small percentage moves in MSFT, AAPL, and NVDA cascade through broad benchmarks, while dispersion within tech is pronounced, with networking and certain cyclicals offsetting weakness in training/inference bellwethers.

The Energy bid aligns with both macro hedging and fundamentals. Monexa AI’s live feed shows XOM and upstream peers higher intraday, with refinery participation indicating breadth across the value chain. The setup resembles a tactical rotation rather than a wholesale factor flip: defensives such as Utilities are higher, Consumer Defensive is nearly flat, and Real Estate is essentially unchanged—more a reshuffling of exposures than a flight from equities. The uptick in ^VIX to 14.63 (+7.57%) and ^RVX to 19.33 (+4.37%) confirms a modest premium for downside protection.

Precious metals’ swing is the day’s most notable commodity story. After an extended, record-setting rally, silver’s intraday drop of more than -6.00% reverberated through miners. The underlying drivers include profit-taking into year-end and volatility characteristic of silver’s thinner liquidity profile relative to gold. The divergence inside Basic Materials—weak miners versus stable industrial gases—helps explain why the sector’s aggregate print is modestly positive even as high-profile constituents are deep red. This is a textbook example of why sector ETFs can mask severe subsector dispersion on volatile commodity days.

Financials’ weakness is more straightforward: banks and financial services are lower, with C, BAC, and JPM each down near the -1.00% to -1.60% range, per Monexa AI. The move tracks the day’s broader risk-off tone and slightly higher volatility rather than a specific catalyst. Medium-term, the debate on net interest margins and credit normalization into 2026 continues; CNBC highlighted RBC’s view that policy easing by mid-2026 would be constructive for the group. For today, however, price action is in the red.

In Technology, the Nvidia–Groq storyline is additive to a separate corporate finance headline: Monexa AI’s company feed notes Nvidia purchased $5 billion in Intel shares, confirmed in a securities filing this morning. While Reuters emphasized the non-exclusive nature of the Groq licensing deal and CNBC cited a reported ~$20 billion value, the market is treating both developments as execution variables for Nvidia’s AI roadmap rather than immediate earnings drivers (Reuters; CNBC. The nuanced read-through is that the AI ecosystem is diversifying. Hyperscalers are investing in custom silicon, and specialized inference architectures are gaining mindshare. Nvidia’s response—embracing IP that complements GPU dominance—keeps it central to AI infrastructure, but investors are appropriately calibrating for integration complexity.

Housing data provided a constructive counterweight. Four straight months of rising pending-home sales suggests demand momentum into year-end. The equity tape, however, isn’t rewarding the broad complex today, likely because the session’s factor drivers are overriding modest fundamental improvements in housing. Within builders, idiosyncratic strategy changes—like KBH’s pivot back to build-to-order highlighted by Raymond James—are steering stock-specific outcomes more than the headline macro print.

Finally, in the global backdrop, the Nikkei’s consolidation near 50,500 underscores 2025’s resilient risk appetite in Japan despite thin year-end liquidity. That resilience is broadly consistent with U.S. equities near cycle highs even as today’s session cools. The revived U.S. IPO market in 2025—336 offerings through mid-December, up 55% year over year, per Monexa AI’s IPO tracker—adds context: risk capital has been returning where fundamentals and growth narratives are tangible, particularly in technology-led deals.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

By midday Monday, U.S. stocks are modestly lower with Technology under pressure, Energy in the lead, and volatility grinding higher. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 is down -0.57%, the Dow -0.62%, and the Nasdaq -0.80%, with ^VIX at 14.63 (+7.57%). Sector leadership is defensive/commodity-tilted, while Financials and Health Care lag. Housing data are improving at the margin, yet intraday flows are dominated by AI hardware strategy headlines and commodity reversals in precious metals.

Into the afternoon, investors will watch whether mega-cap Technology stabilizes or extends losses, with specific attention on NVDA as markets digest the Groq licensing structure and the separate Intel share purchase. Follow-through in Energy and Utilities will help gauge whether today’s rotation is tactical or a more sustained bid for defensives. In Materials, miners’ reaction to precious metals’ volatility will remain a swing factor. Banks’ late-session tone will be an additional tell for risk appetite into the close. Absent new macro data or policy headlines, price action and market-internals should drive the final hours.

Key Takeaways#

Today’s tape is defined by rotation and concentration. The indices reflect modest declines, but beneath the surface is a heavier-than-usual reliance on crosscurrents between mega-cap Technology and commodity/defensive leadership. According to Monexa AI, Energy is the standout gainer intraday, while Financials and Healthcare trail. Nvidia-centric headlines from Reuters and others highlight a strategic broadening of AI inference exposure, which investors are treating with a sober eye toward integration timelines. Precious metals’ swift reversal, with silver down more than -6.00% after record highs, explains the stark divergence inside Materials. For positioning, the message is clear: balance tech concentration with exposures that benefit from commodity resilience and defensives, and stay stock-specific where idiosyncratic catalysts are in play. Reliable real-time data and source triangulation—Monexa AI for intraday pricing, Reuters for transaction detail, and CNBC for sector context—remain essential to navigating the afternoon session.

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Sources: Monexa AI intraday market feed for index/sector performance and company-level price action; Reuters for Nvidia–Groq deal reporting and transaction context (https://www.reuters.com); CNBC for sector and bank outlook commentary (https://www.cnbc.com); Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance for global and commodity color (https://www.bloomberg.com, https://finance.yahoo.com).