Tech-Led Rally Lifts Wall Street at Midday on Strong Jobs Data

Introduction#

The U.S. equity market is powering through the lunch hour on Thursday, 3 July 2025, extending the record-setting tone that closed out the second quarter. Investors opened the session to fresh highs in the major benchmarks, a better-than-forecast June payrolls print, and a surprise easing of U.S. export curbs on Chinese chip-design software. Those catalysts have drawn buyers back into high-growth names while also boosting defensives such as utilities, leaving the tape broadly green by midday.

Market Overview#

Intraday Indices Table & Commentary#

The S&P 500 has already set an intraday record at 6 284.65, boosted by outsized moves in semiconductor design names. The NASDAQ Composite is pacing the advance thanks to double-digit gains in Cadence Design Systems CDNS and Synopsys SNPS after Reuters confirmed the Commerce Department rolled back May-era export restrictions on EDA software. Volatility continues to bleed lower: VIX sits near 16, its fifth straight session under the 20-handle, while the small-cap volatility gauge RVX collapses to 22.45.

Turnover is solid but not euphoric, with ~33.7 million S&P contracts changing hands so far, according to Bloomberg. Dealers highlight a pickup in call buying on mega-cap tech— particularly META and AMZN— yet put positioning in consumer-staples ETFs remains sticky, hinting at selective hedging.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Releases & Policy Updates#

The Labor Department reported 147 000 non-farm payrolls for June versus the 110 000 consensus (Bloomberg). Unemployment dipped to 4.1 %, easing Fed worries about a late-cycle labor rollover. Year-on-year average hourly earnings clocked in at +3.7 %, broadly stable. Economists at Goldman Sachs told CNBC that the “headline strength masks pockets of softness,” but markets seized on the upside surprise nonetheless.

Former Fed governor Frederic Mishkin added on CNBC’s Closing Bell that today’s print “gives the Committee little reason to rush into cuts.” Interest-rate futures via CME now price just 32 bp of easing by December, down from 44 bp yesterday.

Factory-order data offered a second tailwind: Commerce figures show May headline orders rising 1.6 % on the back of commercial aircraft, reinforcing the industrial rebound flagged in the ISM services release earlier in the week.

Global/Geopolitical Developments#

Overnight, the German VDA reported a sharp 12 % drop in April-May auto exports to the U.S. because of tariff disputes, but the headline barely dented risk appetite given chip-easing headlines dominated sentiment. In energy, the Dallas Fed’s latest survey revealed 48 % of executives plan to drill fewer wells, keeping a bid under crude-sensitive names like Exxon Mobil XOM.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

Technology is the clear locomotive. Beyond the EDA complex, cybersecurity heavyweight CRWD is up almost +3.6 % after a favorable Barron’s follow-up to last month’s earnings beat. Hardware names are piggy-backing on renewed China optimism; ORCL trades at an all-time high after media confirmed OpenAI will lease 4.5 GW of capacity through Oracle Cloud.

Utilities and Industrials also out-perform. Power producers such as AES AES and Vistra VST extend week-to-date gains amid scorching weather forecasts across the Midwest. Industrials are buoyed by Boeing BA and Howmet Aerospace HWM on the back of that strong factory-order print.

Basic Materials slips into the red as fertilizers (Mosaic MOS and lithium plays (Albemarle ALB fade on lower commodity-price expectations. Real Estate remains the session’s laggard; data-center titan Equinix EQIX drifts after Cowen’s reiteration failed to excite investors following an 18 % quarter-to-date rally.

Company-Specific Insights#

Midday Earnings and Key Movers#

Earnings activity is generally sparse ahead of next week’s airline and packaged-food slate, yet a handful of sell-side actions are moving single names:

• LESL drops another four percent after Mizuho slashed its price target to $1 on leverage concerns. The pool-supply retailer now sports a market cap below $250 million, underlining the bifurcation between haves and have-nots in discretionary retail.
• WMG adds close to +0.8 % as Bernstein lifted its objective to $34 ahead of the August print, highlighting settlement windfalls that could pad 2026 OIBDA.
• CE trades modestly higher; RBC’s price-target hike to $63 signals improving 2025 cash-flow outlook, yet the broker cautions on near-term auto demand— a theme echoed by the German export numbers.
• XOM is up roughly +1 % after UBS reiterated its Buy call and projected second-quarter EPS to beat consensus despite the $8-per-barrel sequential dip in Brent.
• In transports, CHRW slips after UBS trimmed its target by a dollar and cut Q2 EPS estimates to $1.15 amid softer forwarding volumes.

Finally, a notable sentiment reversal appears in META. Needham’s upgrade to Hold snaps a year-long bearish stance and credits “estimate upside … but with margin risks.” The shares, already +0.7 % intraday, have cheered the removal of that lone Sell rating in the tech giant’s coverage universe.

Extended Analysis#

Intraday Shifts & Momentum#

The session’s character is defined by rotational breadth rather than outright momentum chasing. While the tech-centric NASDAQ enjoys its typical leadership, the underlying bid extends to cyclicals such as airlines and select energy names, suggesting a broader conviction that the economic cycle still has legs. The June payroll surprise, paired with incremental capitulation among sell-side bears— Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shallet and UBS’s Mark Haefele both spoke of “room to run” on CNBC— keeps dip-buyers active.

At the same time, the fed-funds repricing is starting to matter for rate-sensitive pockets. Real-estate investment trusts lag, and longer-duration biotech names are flat despite risk-on headlines. Treasury yields have drifted 4–6 bp higher since the payrolls release; yet the equity market’s resilience reflects confidence that corporate earnings power can absorb a shallower rate-cut path.

Option-market color corroborates this view. Cboe data show put-skew on the S&P falling to the lowest level since March, while single-name skew in chip design has exploded to the upside as traders chase calls on CDNS and SNPS. Dealers flag that today’s China-curb rollback could funnel incremental high-margin licensing revenue into both companies as early as Q4, but warn that follow-through will hinge on export-license clarity.

Breadth on the NYSE prints at roughly 1.9 advancers for every decliner by midday. However, the average intra-day advance-decline line has failed to eclipse Tuesday’s high, hinting at some exhaustion beneath the index surface. Momentum watchers will want to see a close above the morning highs to validate another leg higher.

Conclusion#

Midday Recap & Afternoon Outlook#

Wall Street heads into the second half of the session on firm footing. Technology retains pole position thanks to U.S.–China trade thaw headlines, Utilities ride a mid-summer heatwave, and Industrials take comfort in resurgent factory orders. Meanwhile, the better-than-expected jobs print keeps the soft-landing narrative alive even as it nudges December Fed-cut probabilities lower.

Into the afternoon, traders will monitor:

1. Treasury auction results for any signs of funding-cost stress; bid-to-cover ratios have tightened all week.
2. FOMC speakers— Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic is up at 14:30 ET— for clues on September policy optionality.
3. Index-on-close flows, particularly in mega-cap tech, with several strategists flagging passive rebalancing demand as month-end residuals settle.

Absent a volatility shock, positioning appears tilted toward a quiet grind higher. But with valuations flirting with “priced for perfection” territory, even incremental macro disappointments— tomorrow’s ISM services prices, for instance— could provoke a sharper reaction than the tape suggests.

Key Takeaways#

• Indices at records: S&P and NASDAQ notch fresh highs, propelled by technology and utilities.
• Chip-software catalyst: Commerce Department eases China EDA restrictions, igniting double-digit rallies in CDNS and SNPS.
• Jobs beat, Fed pause: Payroll growth of 147 000 cools rate-cut hopes but reinforces soft-landing optimism.
• Sector dispersion: Utilities, Industrials, Technology lead; Basic Materials and Real Estate lag, reflecting selective inflation hedging and duration sensitivity.
• Single-name focus: LESL downgrades underscore retail bifurcation, while META upgrade removes the last Sell in coverage.
• Afternoon watch-list: Treasury auctions, Bostic commentary, and index-on-close flows will set the tone for the final two hours of trade.