Introduction#
Thursday’s session finished on an upbeat note, capping a four-day advance that has pushed the S&P 500 to a record-high close of 6,297.36, according to Monexa AI end-of-day data. Equity bulls drew confidence from solid earnings out of consumer and industrial bellwethers and from calmer Treasury trading despite an acrid political spat over Federal Reserve independence. Overnight headlines—from Beijing’s cordial meeting with NVDA Chief Executive Jensen Huang to American Express’s pre-market results—are adding nuance to the tone but have not derailed the constructive bias that has defined July’s back half. With June housing starts, the University of Michigan inflation-expectations survey and an earnings slate headlined by SLB and AXP due before the bell, traders head into Friday prepared for another data-rich morning.
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Market Overview#
Yesterday’s Close Recap#
| Ticker | Closing Price | Price Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| ^SPX | 6,297.36 | +33.66 | +0.54% |
| ^DJI | 44,484.49 | +229.70 | +0.52% |
| ^IXIC | 20,885.65 | +155.16 | +0.75% |
| ^NYA | 20,589.52 | +103.78 | +0.51% |
| ^RVX | 23.40 | -0.78 | -3.23% |
| ^VIX | 16.61 | +0.09 | +0.54% |
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each logged their sixth gain in seven sessions as large-cap technology again provided ballast: MSFT climbed +1.20% to close at $511.70, while ORCL surged +3.09% amid upbeat talk of a $700 billion market-cap milestone. Industrials outperformed thanks to a +7.92% leap in SNA, and Financials found a bid on the back of +3.96% strength in BX and +3.41% in C.
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Volatility compressed across the small-cap complex as the Russell 2000 Volatility Index fell -3.23% to 23.40; by contrast, the CBOE VIX ticked up but remains well below its 50-day average of 18.52, suggesting limited demand for systematic hedges into today’s catalysts.
Overnight Developments#
Asian equities were broadly firmer, led by the Hang Seng’s +0.8% advance after China’s Commerce Minister, Wang Wentao, encouraged NVDA and other multinationals to keep supplying “high-quality products” to mainland clients. European bourses opened with fractional gains, shrugging off a mixed set of earnings from consumer-staples names. In commodities, Brent crude is hovering near $89/bbl as traders digest softer Saudi drilling activity flagged in SLB earnings guidance.
On the political front, U.S. market participants continue to keep one eye on Washington after a House Republican referred Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department over the central bank’s controversial headquarters renovation. Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson told CNBC that any forced-resignation push “would be seen by markets as adverse,” but the tape so far shows little evidence of a risk-premium build-up.
Crypto traders woke up to Ethereum at a six-month high near $3,460, sparking a pre-market jump in blockchain-exposed equities such as COIN and small-cap miner BMNR.
Macro Analysis#
Economic Indicators to Watch#
The calendar turns busy at 8:30 a.m. ET with June housing starts and building permits. Consensus compiled by Monexa AI looks for a modest rebound in starts to an annualised 1.29 million units after May’s weather-hit 1.26 million print. At 10:00 a.m., the preliminary University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index is seen ticking down two points to 66.0, while the closely watched 5-to-10-year inflation expectation is expected to hold at 2.9%. A downside surprise in the latter would reinforce the market’s view that the Fed can still engineer its first rate cut as early as September despite vocal opposition from the White House.
Global and Geopolitical Factors#
Supply-chain watchers remain alert to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, yet freight rates have stabilised over the past week, removing an immediate inflationary tail-risk. Meanwhile, a tentative trade-policy thaw between the U.S. and India—underscored by President Trump’s remarks that a bilateral deal is “within reach”—is bolstering risk sentiment across emerging-market ETFs. Citi, however, argues that dollar selling is likely to pause near term, signalling that any relief rallies in EM FX may be short-lived.
Sector Analysis#
| Sector | % Change (Close) |
|---|---|
| Energy | +2.17% |
| Financial Services | +1.41% |
| Real Estate | +1.10% |
| Technology | +0.83% |
| Industrials | +0.79% |
| Consumer Defensive | +0.58% |
| Basic Materials | +0.56% |
| Communication Serv. | +0.40% |
| Healthcare | +0.29% |
| Consumer Cyclical | -0.11% |
| Utilities | -0.62% |
Energy sits atop the leaderboard for a second straight day, supported by a 3.27% climb in FANG and a 4.03% pop in solar specialist FSLR. Thursday’s out-performance was not confined to fossil fuel producers; investors also rewarded drill-service suppliers ahead of results from SLB, which prints before the bell with a consensus EPS target of $0.74 on $8.51 billion revenue.
Financials’ strength was broad-based: bulge-bracket banks, regional lenders and alternative-asset managers all caught a bid on evidence that credit demand remains resilient. The group’s momentum faces an early test this morning with AXP posting a record $17.9 billion in quarterly revenue and EPS of $4.08, both beating expectations. Spend growth accelerated to +7% year-on-year, refuting fears of a quick consumer pullback.
Technology continued to climb even as chip stocks diverged. NVDA added +0.95%, while memory maker MU slumped -2.72% on lingering concerns about DRAM pricing. Software out-shone hardware: ORCL rallied on chatter it could break into the trillion-dollar-club by early 2026.
Healthcare lagged: managed-care giant ELV plummeted -12.22% after guiding to higher medical-cost ratios, and ABT dropped -8.52% despite reporting in-line EPS and a healthy 7.4% top-line rise. The sector’s under-performance warrants attention ahead of next week’s earnings from UNH and JNJ, which together comprise nearly 13% of the S&P 500 Health-Care weighting.
Basic Materials saw a standout +7.57% surge in lithium producer ALB, propelled by renewed hopes that electric-vehicle demand in Europe is stabilising. The sector’s breadth, however, remains thin: steelmakers NUE and STLD closed moderately higher but still trade well below their spring highs.
Company-Specific Insights#
Earnings and Key Movers#
SLB delivered headline EPS of $0.74, matching the Street despite a 6% year-on-year revenue dip tied to slower drilling in Saudi Arabia and Brazil. Critically, Digital & Integration pretax margins widened 240 bps sequentially to 33%, underscoring how AI-enabled reservoir-modelling is cushioning cyclicality in core well-construction. Management guided to flat sequential revenue ex-ChampionX but flagged “modest EBITDA margin expansion” in H2 as offshore projects ramp.
AXP handily beat profit forecasts, with total network volume up 8% and credit metrics unchanged. Management sees full-year EPS trending toward the upper half of its $12.65-$13.15 guidance range, an outlook that lends credibility to Wednesday’s JPMorgan note calling for “durable premium-spend share.”
Retailer TGT added +2.28% after Loop Capital reiterated a $95 price target while highlighting the chain’s plan to open 20 new stores this year and leverage AI for a 20% reduction in delivery times. Although Loop’s target implies –8.3% downside from last night’s close, traders appear to be rewarding operational execution rather than headline valuation calls.
Biotech name SRPT slipped in late trading after William Blair shifted to “Market Perform,” citing the FDA’s request for a black-box warning on gene-therapy Elevidys. With the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index still trailing the S&P by 520 bps year-to-date, incremental regulatory overhangs loom large.
In the cryptocurrency echo chamber, BMNR fell -6.47% despite announcing its Ethereum holdings now top $1 billion. The stock’s pullback reflects concerns over potential dilution tied to last week’s $250 million private placement, though management insists its goal of staking 5% of outstanding ETH remains on course.
Conclusion#
Morning Recap and Outlook#
Equities head into Friday’s open riding a multi-week momentum wave anchored by energy’s AI-linked renaissance, a still-resilient consumer and a cooling volatility surface. Today’s data docket offers a two-part litmus test: whether June housing starts confirm that residential investment is stabilising, and whether consumer-inflation expectations stay moored below 3%.
On the corporate side, SLB and AXP both delivered better-than-feared prints that should reinforce leadership in their respective sectors, while Energy’s +2.17% sector gain highlights investor willingness to pay for cash-flow durability in a world of surging data-center power needs. Conversely, Healthcare’s stumble—exemplified by ELV –12.22%—is a reminder that not all defensives are created equal when policy risk and cost inflation collide.
Tactically, the path of least resistance remains higher so long as VIX stays suppressed and earnings continue to surprise to the upside. Yet with the Fed’s July meeting creeping closer and political noise around Chair Powell escalating, traders should keep an eye on front-end Treasury moves as an early warning signal. For now, cyclical tilt—particularly toward quality energy, industrial and financial names with robust AI or digital leverage—continues to offer the best risk-reward into the week’s final bell.
Key takeaways for Friday’s session: energy leadership persists, tech momentum is intact albeit narrower, Financials are back on the front foot, and macro prints hold the key to whether implied volatility stays bottled under 17. Stay nimble, stay data driven, and watch how the market digests a pivotal blend of earnings and economic indicators as the opening bell approaches.