Markets Poised To Open: S&P near 7,000 as silver tops $75

Introduction#

The final Friday of the year brings the market back from the holiday pause with the major U.S. indices sitting at fresh highs and sentiment tilted modestly risk-on—albeit with a defensive undertow. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 (^SPX) closed at 6,932.05 on Wednesday, up +0.32%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended at 48,731.16 (+0.60%) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) finished at 23,613.31 (+0.22%). Volatility was mixed into the holiday close: the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) fell to 18.13 (-1.57%), while the CBOE VIX (^VIX) ticked up to 14.20 (+5.42%). Overnight, the macro tape was headlined by a sharp move in precious metals—silver pushed through $75/oz for the first time—alongside incremental regulatory headlines in Europe targeting AI data practices.

Two developments should shape early tone. First, silver’s breakout, driven by industrial and investment demand, persistent supply shortfalls, and its recent U.S. “critical mineral” designation, may sustain a bid beneath precious metals and lift silver-levered equities. Second, regulatory risk around AI and data remains front and center: Reuters reported that Italy’s antitrust authority ordered Meta to suspend WhatsApp terms suspected of restricting rival AI chatbots, a decision Meta intends to appeal (Reuters. That keeps the policy overhang live for mega-cap platforms even as AI-related capex remains a powerful equity driver.

Market Overview#

Yesterday’s Close Recap#

According to Monexa AI’s end-of-day data, the prior session wrapped with modest gains across the majors and relatively light participation versus average holiday-season volumes.

Breadth and leadership reflected a selective risk-on tone. Consumer-facing cyclicals and retail outperformed, with Nike’s outsized move the sector’s bellwether into the close, while banks and payments posted firm gains that normally accompany a constructive macro read-through. At the same time, a defensive bid was evident in Utilities, Consumer Staples, and REITs—an unusual pairing that often emerges when investors lean into year-end momentum but hedge valuation and policy risks. Technology leadership was mixed: semiconductors and equipment pockets outpaced mega-cap platforms, muting headline gains at the sector level even as the index nudged to new highs. Energy lagged on the day-to-day tape even though the official sector close printed near flat, a discrepancy we address below.

Monexa AI notes that S&P 500 composite volumes ran lighter than typical, with ^SPX session volume at approximately 2.25 billion versus an average near 5.40 billion—consistent with the holiday trading pattern and amplifying the impact of single-stock flows on index levels.

Overnight Developments#

The most eye-catching overnight macro move was in precious metals. Silver surged past $75/oz for the first time, propelled by robust industrial demand, persistent supply deficits, and momentum-driven buying, aided by its recent designation as a U.S. critical mineral, according to Monexa AI’s news feed. That breakout, especially into thin holiday liquidity, raises the stakes for early-session follow-through and could spill over into silver miners and diversified precious metals portfolios.

Regulatory risk remained in focus after Reuters reported that Italy’s antitrust authority ordered Meta to halt WhatsApp terms that could limit rival AI chatbots, intensifying European scrutiny of AI-linked data practices (Reuters. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported that Meta is moving to incorporate AI chatbot conversations as ad-targeting signals, underlining the monetization vector regulators are watching closely (WSJ.

In rates and FX, Japanese government bonds edged higher as investors digested Tokyo inflation prints earlier in the Asia session, according to Monexa AI’s overnight summary. The cross-currents between Japan’s policy normalization path and global bond markets remain a live swing factor for duration-sensitive equities and REITs.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Indicators to Watch#

The domestic calendar is seasonally light into the final sessions of the year, which tends to magnify single-stock and sector flows, year-end rebalancing, and positioning into the “Santa Claus rally” window. According to Monexa AI’s news aggregation, the S&P 500 continues to press record territory into this seasonal period, with many desks focused on whether the last five trading days of December and first two of January sustain the historical bias for gains. In the absence of major scheduled prints today, overnight moves in commodities and any incremental policy headlines will likely set the tone.

Valuation debate remains a macro input to intraday bias. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF is flagged in research commentary as trading above a forward P/E of 25x, heightening sensitivity to any growth or policy disappointment into 2026, according to Monexa AI’s curated analysis. While valuations alone rarely end cycles, they often modulate risk appetite when macro news is scarce—one reason the defensive bid in Utilities and Staples is notable even as indices make new highs.

Global/Geopolitical Factors#

Two global threads matter at the open. First, EU scrutiny of AI and data practices appears to be accelerating, with Italy’s order on WhatsApp’s terms foreshadowing broader European Commission attention. The compliance costs and operational adjustments from such proceedings can be material for platforms with global reach; investors should watch for any updates that alter data access, targeting capabilities, or product roadmaps in the EU and, by precedent, in the U.S. (Reuters. Second, Japan’s policy path continues to ripple through global rates. Monexa AI’s overnight feed notes JGBs firmed as Tokyo inflation was digested, keeping attention on how any further normalization from the Bank of Japan could interact with cross-border capital flows and U.S. Treasury demand. That in turn informs REITs, Utilities, and other rate-sensitive corners that outperformed into Wednesday’s close.

Trade and tariff uncertainty remain part of the 2026 setup. Monexa AI’s news feed highlights ongoing tariff pressure in consumer categories such as leather goods, with margin implications for brands and retailers. Any court decisions or policy changes related to tariffs would be market-moving for specific discretionary subsectors, which helps explain the stock-picking nature of recent consumer outperformance.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI’s sector performance summary, Wednesday’s close featured a tilt toward defensives and consumer resilience. Note that intraday breadth data flagged Energy as weak, while the official sector close printed marginally higher; we call out that discrepancy in the discussion below.

Rotation and Leadership Into Year-End#

The close signaled a nuanced rotation: investors bought both offense and defense. Consumer Staples led with +1.20%, backed by strong moves in bellwethers like TGT (+2.36%), COST (+2.00%), DLTR (+2.07%), along with steadier advances in WMT and PG. Utilities followed at +0.81%, with NRG and D leading, complemented by NEE and SO. Communication Services added +0.51%, driven by cable and media outperformance—CMCSA (+1.36%), CHTR (+1.55%), and DIS (+0.96%). Within Technology (+0.37%), leadership was selective: semiconductors and equipment led while mega-cap platforms were flat to mixed; MU jumped +3.77% and LRCX rose +1.24%, while NVDA was mildly negative and MSFT, AAPL were modestly higher.

Financials (+0.34%) were broadly constructive, with large banks such as C (+1.81%), JPM (~+0.99%), and capital markets exposure at MS (+1.20%) pulling the group higher. Payments strength in MA (~+0.54%) supported the case for consumer resilience, even as crypto-linked COIN underperformed (-1.06%). Consumer Discretionary was near flat at the sector level (+0.06%) but masked powerful stock-specific moves: NKE surged +4.64%; homebuilders PHM (+1.68%) and DHI (+1.50%) advanced; SBUX and AMZN posted steadier gains.

Healthcare (+0.32%) showed selective strength across biotech and large-cap pharma—MRNA (+1.42%), ZTS (+1.58%), CVS (+1.38%), and MRK (+1.34%)—with UNH providing ballast. Industrials (+0.37%) continued to reflect cyclical momentum in aerospace and transport; HWM (+1.24%), BA (+0.60%), UAL (+1.13%), HON (+0.73%), and CSX (+0.52%) all contributed.

Energy’s tape was the outlier. Monexa AI’s heatmap flagged broad weakness across producers, including declines in COP (-1.00%), EQT (-1.16%), and slight pressure on XOM, while renewables like FSLR rose (+1.05%). Yet the sector performance table shows a marginal +0.04% close, indicating a breadth-versus-cap-weight or timing discrepancy. In our view, the official close (table) is the anchor for the day’s print, while the breadth signal suggests the group’s internal momentum remains fragile—a setup to watch if commodity volatility expands.

Real Estate printed +0.00% on the sector table, but Monexa AI’s heatmap showed notable gains across REITs such as PLD (+1.08%), O (+1.32%), INVH (+1.60%), PSA (+1.02%), and WELL (+0.45%). We highlight this discrepancy because it underscores the importance of digging beneath headline sector prints; rate-sensitive REITs were bid on the day.

Basic Materials closed +0.02%, masking dispersion: ALB (+1.23%) and NUE (+1.10%) advanced while STLD fell (-1.03%); PPG gained (+0.86%), and gold major NEM slipped (-0.49%).

Company-Specific Insights#

Earnings and Key Movers#

Stock-picking mattered more than sector beta into the holiday close, and overnight sell-side activity added incremental catalysts for today’s open. According to Monexa AI’s compilation of analyst notes and company disclosures, several updates are worth attention.

BMO Capital reiterated a Market Perform on Halliburton HAL with a $31 price target, citing relative resilience in North American activity and steady international growth, and forecasting Q4 2025 EPS of $0.56 and EBITDA of roughly $1.02 billion. The firm’s 2026 EBITDA view of $4.01 billion implies a modest margin step-down, consistent with a slightly cooler upstream spending backdrop.

Raymond James downgraded KB Home KBH to Market Perform, flagging execution risk as the builder pivots back to a build-to-order model while rivals are still working down spec inventory through mortgage-rate buydowns. The timing risk is clear: if affordability eases slowly, order growth and gross margins could face near-term pressure.

Lake Street Capital raised its price target on Dave Inc. DAVE to $308 (Buy), pointing to improving credit performance, higher net monetization per user, and declining customer acquisition costs. The firm called the pullback after earnings an opportunity, while highlighting an upcoming BNPL card launch that expands the company’s addressable market.

B. Riley cut WhiteFiber WYFI to a $40 target from $44 but maintained Buy, after the company signed its first long-term co-location agreement at its NC-1 data center campus. The deal took longer than expected to finalize, but management reaffirmed the deployment timeline and disclosed advanced discussions for a construction financing facility targeted for early Q1 2026—key to the AI data center execution story.

Noble Capital downgraded Comstock Mining LODE to Market Perform, citing elevated near-term funding needs and uncertainty around non-core asset monetization. Given the recent ~33% stock move since an earlier upgrade, the analyst opted to step back pending clearer financing and project execution visibility.

Evercore ISI raised its target on Live Nation LYV to $188 (Outperform), naming it a top 2026 media pick on expectations for accelerating consolidated AOI and improving visibility into the earnings power of the Venue Nation pipeline. The bottom-up analysis of venues slated through 2031 helps quantify a revenue stream investors have been slow to fully price.

Truist lifted its target on Cytokinetics CYTK to $84 (Buy) following regulatory approval of MYQORZO, modeling global peak sales near $3.7 billion in oHCM and a steady 2026 launch. The differentiated label and benchmark comparisons to Camzyos provide a tangible framework for early uptake tracking.

Freedom Capital initiated Evolution Petroleum EPM at Buy with a $5.30 target, citing improving commodity fundamentals and an income-focused capital allocation strategy, while RBC boosted its target on Rollins ROL to $70 (Outperform) on consistent mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth vectors and steady incremental margins.

Americold COLD disclosed a strategic distribution partnership with On the Run in Australia, marking an entry into convenience-store distribution. The move expands the company’s logistics footprint into fast-turning categories and underscores its operating versatility in colder-chain networks.

Within Technology, Marvell MRVL remained in focus after benchmarking commentary highlighted expanded AI infrastructure capabilities and optics exposure, including its Celestial AI acquisition and strategic hyperscaler ties. As of December 23, Monexa AI noted the shares near $86.53, trading at roughly 27x forward earnings and a forward non-GAAP PEG of 0.71x, with 2026 growth tethered to AI networking and custom silicon traction.

Meta Platforms META saw a modest price-target trim at Baird to $815 from $820 while maintaining Outperform, noting near-term sentiment risks but pointing to catalysts such as first-quarter guidance clarity, margin commentary, a next Llama model, and continued Meta AI enhancements. The regulatory crosscurrents in Europe are material to the near-term narrative and will be watched closely into 2026 (Reuters.

Extended Analysis#

AI Infrastructure: Capital Cycle, Cost Curves, and Market Leadership#

AI remains the market’s central capital story, and the leadership dispersion inside Technology is telling. Wednesday’s tape favored semiconductors and equipment over mega-cap platforms, which aligns with the infrastructure phase of this cycle. Memory leader MU rallied +3.77%, equipment bellwether LRCX gained +1.24%, and networking/silicon enabler MRVL continues to be positioned as a beneficiary of data-center optics and custom silicon demand.

On the platform side, Meta’s AI hardware and data-center blueprint offers a lens into unit economics over the next two to three years. Meta has detailed its in-house MTIA silicon efforts and gigawatt-scale data-center expansion, including a Texas build with a targeted ~1 GW capacity and online date around 2028, framed as part of a broader push to reduce reliance on third-party accelerators and improve compute efficiency (Bloomberg; Reuters. The company has also discussed optimizing workloads for alternative architectures (e.g., Arm-based accelerators) to improve power efficiency and interoperability across its AI stack (Reuters.

The investor takeaway is straightforward: this infrastructure wave supports component and equipment providers immediately, while platform-level margin leverage from in-house silicon and data-center redesign shows up later, subject to execution, capex cadence, and regulatory constraints. That helps explain why mega-cap platform moves were muted even as indices rose; the market is parsing long-duration ROI versus near-term supply-chain beneficiaries.

Precious Metals Breakout: Silver Above $75 and Equity Leverage#

Silver pushing beyond $75/oz for the first time adds a new macro tell into year-end. According to Monexa AI’s news feed, the move reflects a combination of strong industrial and investment demand, persistent supply shortfalls, its new U.S. critical mineral designation, and momentum-driven buying. The equity leverage to a sustained move is typically concentrated in primary silver miners and diversified precious metals producers with higher silver exposure. Investors who prefer equity proxies should map operational gearing and balance sheet flexibility carefully; names like Pan American Silver PAAS typically exhibit outsized sensitivity to silver price regimes.

The cross-asset wrinkle is that gold proxies were mixed into Wednesday’s close—gold major NEM slipped -0.49%—while silver was breaking out overnight. That could translate into catch-up trades if the move persists, but given thin holiday liquidity, investors should look for confirmation in early spot and futures turnover before extrapolating.

Valuations, Volatility, and the Santa Claus Set-Up#

Into the last sessions of the year, two datapoints deserve attention. First, the VIX uptick to 14.20 (+5.42%) into an up day for the indices is unusual, especially as the small-cap volatility gauge (^RVX) fell. This divergence may reflect timing differences and holiday liquidity, but it does reinforce the case for selective hedging where portfolios are concentrated in high-multiple growth. Second, valuation commentary compiled by Monexa AI highlights that broad U.S. equities, as proxied by SPY, screen at a forward P/E above 25x. That doesn’t preclude further gains—particularly if AI and consumer strength continue—but it shortens the market’s leash on policy and earnings surprises.

Seasonality provides a counterbalance. The “Santa Claus rally” period—historically the last five trading days of December and first two of January—has a positive skew. Whether that plays out this year will likely depend on whether defensives can keep absorbing flows alongside AI and select consumer names, without a renewed drawdown in Energy or a macro surprise from global rates or tariffs. Investors should treat the first hour today as an information-rich read on how institutional rebalancing is being expressed across factor and sector lines.

Conclusion#

Morning Recap and Outlook#

U.S. equities enter Friday’s open with the S&P 500 parked just shy of 7,000, breadth leaning positive, and a notable tilt toward defensives and rate-sensitive assets even as semiconductors and consumer leaders carry the offensive baton. According to Monexa AI, Wednesday’s close registered +0.32% on ^SPX, +0.60% on ^DJI, and +0.22% on ^IXIC, with a mixed volatility backdrop (^VIX up; ^RVX down) that argues for respecting both the year-end bid and the latent policy and valuation risks.

Into the bell, we’re watching four catalysts. First, follow-through in silver after the $75/oz breakout—confirmation would likely support silver-levered miners and potentially lift Basic Materials breadth. Second, any incremental developments in European AI regulation after Italy’s WhatsApp order for Meta; that has implications for platform monetization strategies and AI data usage (Reuters. Third, sector rotation between defensives and cyclicals—can Utilities, Staples, and REITs continue to absorb flows while semis and select consumer leaders extend gains? Fourth, Energy leadership: breadth flagged weakness yesterday despite a marginally positive sector close; commodity price action will dictate whether that divergence resolves bullishly or not.

For positioning, the near-term playbook favors quality within leadership cohorts: semis and equipment tied to AI infrastructure; large-cap consumer franchises with pricing power; banks and payments riding steady credit and spending trends; and rate-sensitive REITs with improving fundamentals. Where portfolios are extended in high-multiple growth, consider using the VIX uptick and light liquidity to revisit hedge ratios rather than relying on seasonality alone to carry the tape higher.

Key Takeaways#

The S&P 500 sits near 6,932 into the open, with the Dow above 48,700 and the Nasdaq near 23,600. Gains came alongside lighter holiday volumes, which magnify stock-specific flows and sector rotations, according to Monexa AI.

Silver broke above $75/oz overnight on strong demand and supply shortfalls. Watch for confirmation in early turnover; sustained strength would favor silver-levered miners and could broaden Basic Materials participation.

Defensives and income proxies—Staples, Utilities, and REITs—led into the close, while semiconductors and equipment outperformed within Technology. Energy’s breadth was soft despite a marginally positive sector print, a divergence to monitor against commodity moves.

Regulatory risk is an active catalyst in Europe. Italy’s antitrust order targeting WhatsApp’s AI terms raises the stakes for AI monetization and data usage in the EU and potentially beyond (Reuters.

AI remains the dominant capital cycle. Platform margin leverage from in-house silicon and data-center redesigns is a multi-year story, while component and equipment suppliers accrue nearer-term benefits. Meta’s gigawatt-scale data-center plans and MTIA efforts exemplify the trajectory (Bloomberg; Reuters.

Valuations are rich, with the broad market flagged near >25x forward P/E by Monexa AI’s curated research commentary. Paired with a VIX uptick, that argues for selective hedges even as the seasonal bias remains constructive.