Tuesday Open: Relief Rally, AI Headlines, Shutdown Hopes

Introduction#

U.S. equities enter Tuesday, November 11, 2025, with momentum after a powerful, tech-led advance on Monday and a dose of overnight headline risk that could steer the open. According to Monexa AI, yesterday’s close saw the S&P 500 finish at 6,832.43 (up +1.54%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47,368.63 (up +0.81%), and the Nasdaq Composite at 23,527.17 (up +2.27%). That relief rally was driven by renewed optimism that the U.S. government shutdown is nearing an end and by broad participation from mega-cap technology and AI-levered semiconductor names. Overnight, the tone was more mixed. European equity sentiment leaned constructive on shutdown-end hopes even as eurozone yields edged higher, while Asia traded without strong conviction following Monday’s Wall Street surge. News flow was dense across AI and infrastructure: reports that SoftBank fully exited its NVDA stake, a Financial Times report that a top META AI scientist may depart to launch a startup, and fresh hyperscaler investment signals from MSFT and Alphabet’s Google.

According to Bloomberg and Reuters, the prospect of a shutdown resolution supported Monday’s bid in risk assets, while European markets opened with a cautiously positive tone tied to the same theme. U.S. bond markets are typically closed for Veterans Day while equities operate on a normal schedule; investors should confirm trading hours with exchange notices and coverage such as Barron’s. The upshot into today’s open is that risk appetite is improving but still selective, with index-level gains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology and AI-linked leaders and defensives generally lagging.

Market Overview#

Yesterday’s Close Recap#

According to Monexa AI, Monday’s session featured solid gains across major U.S. benchmarks and fresh proximity to year-to-date highs, particularly for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Turnover on the S&P 500 ran below its recent average, a reminder that despite the strong tape, positioning and conviction remain nuanced.

The S&P 500 closed roughly 1.27% below its year high of 6,920.34, while the Nasdaq Composite finished about 2.05% below its 24,019.99 high, per Monexa AI. Importantly, the VIX ended at 17.91, above its 50-day average of about 17.15, signaling that hedging demand has not vanished even as equities climb. The CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (^RVX) slipped -3.46%, reflecting easing stress in small-cap implied vol, though it remains elevated versus its 200-day trend.

Leaders were concentrated. Monexa AI’s heatmap highlights robust gains in semiconductors and AI beneficiaries, with NVDA up +5.79%, MU up +6.46%, and AMD up +4.47%. Platform mega-caps contributed, with MSFT up +1.85%, GOOGL up +4.04%, GOOG up +3.89%, and META up +1.62%. The rally extended into consumer technology proxies AMZN at +1.63% and TSLA at +3.66%. In contrast, managed-care insurers dragged healthcare as CNC fell -8.81% and MOH slid -7.34%, more than offsetting strength in pharma and medtech such as LLY at +4.57%, ISRG at +2.89%, and VRTX at +2.86%.

Overnight Developments#

Overnight, global markets were mixed after Monday’s U.S. rally as participants assessed whether the prospective end to the U.S. shutdown is fully priced. European equities leaned higher early as optimism around a resolution supported risk appetite, according to Reuters. Eurozone government bond yields edged up alongside the improved risk tone, while European sectors took their cues from U.S. tech leadership and travel-related resilience. In Germany, Fraport shares jumped after an earnings beat tied to a rebound in passenger traffic, per Dow Jones/WSJ and Reuters. Swiss watchmakers rallied on chatter that U.S. tariffs could be cut from 39% to roughly 15%, a development flagged by Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

AI and semiconductor headlines were a major overnight thread. Reuters and Bloomberg reported that SoftBank fully exited its NVDA position, selling approximately $5.83 billion in stock. Separately, Nvidia-backed CoreWeave guided down due to data center delays, pressuring its shares and underscoring execution risk in hyperscale infrastructure buildouts; this was covered by Reuters. The Financial Times reported that META chief AI scientist Yann LeCun plans to leave to found a startup, while Bloomberg noted MSFT intends to invest about $10 billion in a Portugal AI data hub and Reuters reported Google’s mid-single-digit billion euro investment plan in Germany. Traders will also watch AMD as Wall Street expects fresh detail at an investor day today on its AI chip and systems strategy, as previewed by Barron’s.

Finally, sentiment gauges are improving but cautious. The CNN Fear & Greed Index shifted into the “Fear” zone, an incremental upgrade from “Extreme Fear,” suggesting risk tolerance is stabilizing but not euphoric, according to CNN Business.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Indicators to Watch#

With the U.S. government shutdown appearing closer to resolution, investors are preparing for the resumption of delayed federal economic releases. According to overnight reporting from Bloomberg and Reuters, the reopening could trigger a cluster of backlogged data and reinvigorate rate and growth debates. The timing of data normalization matters for volatility, because traders have been leaning on corporate results and high-frequency indicators in the absence of official prints. As those reports return to the calendar, near-term swings in inflation and labor indicators could reset expectations for the policy path. Into today’s open, there is no new Tier-1 macro print cited in the overnight docket; the focus is instead on shutdown negotiations and the tech-investment news cycle.

Liquidity conditions also deserve attention. The VIX at 17.91 sits above its 50-day average and below its 200-day average, per Monexa AI, implying that volatility expectations are contained but still elevated versus the recent trough. With U.S. bond markets closed for Veterans Day and equities operating on standard hours, price discovery in rates will be limited today, a dynamic that can dampen cross-asset signaling into the cash equity open, as noted by Barron’s scheduling coverage.

Global/Geopolitical Factors#

Beyond shutdown headlines, European policy and trade remain in focus. Reports that the U.S. and Switzerland are working toward lower tariffs could boost luxury and exporter sentiment if confirmed, according to Bloomberg and the Financial Times. Meanwhile, ongoing AI-industrial policy efforts in the EU, including large-scale digital infrastructure investments by U.S. platforms like MSFT and Alphabet, highlight the geographically diversified capex cycle that is underpinning data center build-outs across multiple jurisdictions, with potential implications for local labor markets and grid capacity.

From a flow perspective, U.K. investors have been consistent net sellers of equities since June, with a reported record $10 billion outflow from equity funds over that period, according to Calastone data via Reuters. While not a direct driver of U.S. indices, those flows underscore the regional risk preferences shaping global equity allocation and could influence cross-listings and ADR sentiment.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI, Monday’s sector tape favored growth and cyclicals, with Technology and Healthcare at the top of the leaderboard and Utilities lagging. The distribution reflects a classic risk-on but selective posture: investors are leaning into secular growth and commodity-linked names while avoiding defensives where earnings visibility hasn’t tightened.

Tech breadth was driven by semis and AI software exposure. NVDA at +5.79%, MU at +6.46%, AMD at +4.47%, and PLTR at +8.81% led the day, complemented by platform strength in MSFT and Alphabet’s GOOGL/GOOG. Communication Services advanced on gains in ad/search/social as META and NFLX rose, though traditional cable underperformed with CHTR down -4.28%. Healthcare’s headline gain masked severe bifurcation: managed-care names sank sharply while pharma and medtech rallied. Basic Materials benefited from commodity beta with ALB up +6.59%, NEM up +5.84%, and FCX up +2.86%. Utilities and Consumer Defensive lagged, consistent with a market that is not seeking shelter.

In Industrials, automation and aerospace strength could not offset shipping weakness. ROK climbed +4.75% and GE added +1.52%, while FDX and UPS fell -3.13% and -3.01%, respectively, emphasizing ongoing margin and demand pressures in freight. Energy finished fractionally positive with integrateds and refiners participating, including VLO at +2.03%, COP at +1.61%, XOM at +0.85%, and midstream KMI at +1.92%. Real Estate was mixed, where telecom/infra REITs like CCI at +2.56% and AMT at +0.99% outperformed while storage REITs EXR at -2.01% and PSA at -1.90% lagged.

Company-Specific Insights#

Earnings and Key Movers#

Earnings and corporate developments are central to this morning’s setup. In consumer staples, Tyson Foods TSN rallied +2.32% after beating Q4 expectations with adjusted EPS of $1.15 and a FY26 operating income outlook of $2.1–$2.3 billion, per Monexa AI’s aggregation of company results and coverage from Reuters. The company reported 2.2% year-over-year revenue growth to $13.86 billion, with a standout 10.1% operating margin in chicken, while flagging pressure in beef. That mix shift underscores a broader consumer trend toward lower-cost proteins as beef prices stay elevated, a theme verified by company commentary and reported by Forbes/WSJ/Reuters.

In software, Monday.com MNDY dropped -12.33% on the day as soft Q4 guidance overshadowed a Q3 beat, signaling that investors are refocusing on forward operating leverage and growth durability across workflow SaaS. The stock’s slide, despite stronger-than-expected Q3 EPS and revenue, highlights the market’s intolerance for decelerating growth or margin compression in high-multiple names. Elsewhere in solar, Sunrun RUN bounced +7.12% after a Guggenheim upgrade to Buy and a $27 target, with the brokerage arguing that improving cash generation and potential capital returns offset recent capacity concerns, as reported by Monexa AI and sell-side notes summarized by Reuters.

Crypto-adjacent volatility persisted. Bakkt BKKT printed a notable revenue and EPS beat (reported EPS $1.21, revenue $402.2 million), yet shares finished -11.41% on the session, a stark divergence between results and price action that likely reflects positioning, liquidity, or guidance nuance rather than headline revenue beats alone, per Monexa AI’s compilation and coverage from company transcripts via financial wires. The broader financials cohort was mixed, with HOOD up +4.23%, COIN up +2.84%, and large banks like JPM and MS up +0.85% and +1.66%, respectively, while BRK-B edged -0.42%.

Biotech produced outsized single-name moves. Intellia NTLA advanced +2.21% after highlighting promising early- to mid-stage clinical data across hereditary angioedema and ATTR programs, while Cogent Biosciences COGT surged +119.03% on positive Phase 3 results in GIST. Notably, Cogent also filed for concurrent offerings of convertible notes and common shares, according to company releases; such financings can temper follow-through given dilution risk. In consumer discretionary and travel, Expedia EXPE rose +3.79% and Royal Caribbean RCL gained +3.50%, while packaging name Ball BALL slid -5.25% on idiosyncratic pressures.

In mega-cap internet, Erste Group downgraded META to Hold, citing rising AI capital intensity and reduced buyback capacity, a point consistent with post-earnings commentary about elevated 2026 capex trajectories and tighter free cash flow cushions, per broker notes summarized by Monexa AI and coverage via Reuters. Despite that, the stock advanced +1.62% Monday as ad fundamentals remain firm. Alphabet classes GOOGL/GOOG posted gains of +4.04%/+3.89%, aided by consolidation of risk appetite in mega-cap leaders.

Looking ahead to today’s catalysts, Sea Limited SE reported Q3 results in the early hours with management emphasizing continued momentum across e-commerce and digital finance, according to the company’s release. Shares rose +3.41% Monday into the print. The market will parse Shopee Brazil GMV trends and SeaMoney credit performance, as flagged in Monexa AI previews. Traders will also track AMD as it hosts an analyst event that may detail AI silicon and systems roadmaps, a potential sentiment driver for semiconductors into the afternoon, per Barron’s.

Extended Analysis#

The rally’s leadership remains concentrated. Monexa AI’s market-structure analysis shows Technology now comprises roughly one-third of the S&P 500 by weight, and Monday’s gains were heavily influenced by a narrow leadership cohort—NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL/GOOG, TSLA, and select AI beneficiaries like PLTR. That concentration has a dual effect: it amplifies upside in relief rallies but also embeds single-stock event risk into the indices. Overnight headlines underscore the point. SoftBank’s complete exit from NVDA ahead of its November 19 earnings date is a reminder that flow dynamics can cut both ways in crowded winners. CoreWeave’s revised revenue outlook due to data center delays highlights how even “picks-and-shovels” beneficiaries face execution risk in deploying capital at hyperscale.

Valuation debates ride shotgun to this narrative. According to Monexa AI, implied volatility was marginally higher across major asset classes ex-commodities last week, and the VIX closed the prior week near 19 before slipping to 17.91 Monday. The combination of elevated but manageable vol and a bid into growth suggests investors are willing to underwrite AI capex cycles given robust earnings delivery from leaders. Yet broker commentary on META makes clear that capital intensity matters. If platforms accelerate 2026–2027 capex for AI infrastructure, modeled free cash flow will take a near-term hit even as suppliers like NVDA and AMD capture revenue growth. That linkage favors semiconductors and data-center infrastructure in the current phase of the cycle while placing a higher burden of proof on platform monetization over the next four to six quarters.

Breadth remains uneven beneath the surface. In Healthcare, sharp losses in managed care—CNC -8.81%, MOH -7.34%—coexisted with strength in GLP-1 beneficiaries and medtech—LLY +4.57%, ISRG +2.89%, VRTX +2.86%. For portfolio construction, that argues for sub-sector selectivity rather than broad-brush sector tilts. Industrials showed a similar split, where automation demand and aerospace resilience lifted ROK and GE but shipping demand and pricing woes pressured FDX and UPS. In Consumer, travel and experiences outperformed, while large-box staples and select food suppliers lagged—COST -0.78%, LW -3.30%—signaling that defensives still struggle to attract incremental buyers in a risk-on tape.

Commodities and cyclicals corroborated the risk tone. Basic Materials and Energy both posted gains, led by ALB +6.59%, NEM +5.84%, FCX +2.86%, and Energy’s VLO +2.03%, COP +1.61%. These moves often reflect both fundamental commodity dynamics and portfolio rotation into cyclicals when macro clouds begin to lift. If the shutdown resolution proceeds and backlogged economic data prints without adverse surprises, the cyclical trade could persist; conversely, a growth or inflation shock in the delayed data would challenge that rotation. For now, the balance of evidence favors staying engaged with cyclicals and AI-levered growth while acknowledging the concentration and event risks discussed above.

Finally, watch rates and liquidity as the calendar normalizes. With the U.S. bond market closed for Veterans Day, cross-asset correlations may temporarily weaken. As Treasury trading resumes in full and delayed economic reports hit the tape in coming days following a potential shutdown end, equity volatility could reprice. The S&P 500 above its 50- and 200-day moving averages (approximately 6,677.73 and 6,133.58, respectively, per Monexa AI) argues for a constructive intermediate trend, but the VIX above its 50-day and the uneven sector breadth argue for disciplined position sizing and selective adds rather than blanket beta exposure.

Conclusion#

Morning Recap and Outlook#

The pre-market setup is defined by three forces. First, Monday’s advance put the indices within striking distance of year highs, led by semiconductors and mega-cap platforms that continue to command multiple expansion on earnings delivery. Second, overnight AI headlines were two-sided—platform capex and data-center investment plans support the medium-term infrastructure story, while the SoftBank NVDA exit and CoreWeave’s revenue guide-down remind traders that capital cycles are lumpy and execution-dependent. Third, shutdown-end optimism is supportive for sentiment and could unleash a backlog of U.S. macro data that resets rate expectations.

For investors into today’s open, the actionable posture is pragmatic. Staying long select AI/semiconductor names that are executing—NVDA, AMD, MU—remains justified by earnings momentum, while monitoring crowding and single-name risk. Platform leaders—MSFT, GOOGL/GOOG, AMZN, META—continue to provide index ballast, but investors should track capex and free cash flow trajectories closely. In cyclicals, the commodity-backed tape supports exposure to Basic Materials and Energy, while in Healthcare and Industrials, sub-sector selection is key given the dispersion between insurers and pharma, and between automation and freight. Near-term, watch AMD’s analyst day for semiconductor sentiment, any incremental shutdown headlines, and updates on Europe’s tariff discussions and AI infrastructure projects led by hyperscalers.

Key takeaways are straightforward. Monday’s move was real, but the leadership is narrow; volatility is manageable but not absent; and the macro calendar is about to get more complicated as delayed data returns. According to Monexa AI, the indices are above their primary trend lines and sector rotation favors growth and cyclicals. Into the opening bell, the most durable edge lies in owning the winners that are still delivering, avoiding crowded defensives without catalysts, and staying attentive to how the shutdown resolution and backlogged data alter the path of rates and risk.