Tech rebound, AI capex and global calm set tone for U.S. open

Introduction#

U.S. equities head into Tuesday, February 10, 2026 on the back of a resilient, tech-led advance. According to Monexa AI, the S&P 500 (^SPX) closed at 6,964.82 on Monday, up +32.52 (or +0.47%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) finished at 50,135.87 (+20.19, +0.04%) and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 23,238.67 (+207.46, +0.90%). Breadth was uneven, but mega-cap technology leadership, semiconductor strength, and a surge in select enterprise platforms helped offset concentrated weakness in insurance, parts of healthcare, and discretionary retail. Overnight, a calm tone in U.S. futures and a Japan-led rally in Asia moderated in Europe, while treasury yields edged lower ahead of retail sales data. Monexa AI also highlights a notable headline: Alphabet’s GOOGL sold $20 billion of bonds across seven tranches to fund AI infrastructure, with maturities stretching to 2066 — a headline that may frame today’s discussion around the capital intensity of the AI buildout.

Beyond the equity tape, investors are balancing cyclical signals from commodities and materials against policy and legal headlines that could steer individual sectors. Monexa AI notes that China’s SMIC (SMICY reported a sharp earnings beat, the Nikkei 225 continued to mark records post-election, and U.S. Treasury yields slipped as traders brace for a December retail sales print. Meanwhile, the latest analysis compiled by Monexa AI points to roughly $650 billion of 2026 AI-related capex by the largest internet platforms, reinforcing a pivotal theme: the market is rewarding infrastructure enablers and cash-generative platforms over pricier, slower-growing software names. That view aligns with recent Tier‑1 reporting on big‑tech AI spending (Bloomberg.

Market Overview#

Yesterday’s Close Recap#

The prior session advanced on the strength of large-cap technology, with notable single-stock surges adding incremental fuel. According to Monexa AI, the key U.S. indices closed as follows:

Monexa AI’s heatmap shows technology leading with support from mega-caps and high-beta winners. ORCL rallied on AI and cloud updates, NVDA and MSFT extended gains, and several component suppliers and hardware names, including GLW, contributed. The advance was partially offset by sharp drops in insurance brokers and consultants — WTW, AJG, and AON — alongside mixed healthcare and softer discretionary retail. Volatility stayed contained on the surface: the VIX ended at 17.43 (+0.07, +0.40%), near its 50‑day average of ~16.20 and slightly below its 200‑day of ~17.61 (Monexa AI). The Russell 2000 volatility gauge (^RVX) eased to 23.22 (-0.81%), reflecting a modest improvement in perceived small-cap risk.

Technically, the S&P 500 closed above both its 50‑day (~6,885.69) and 200‑day (~6,469.51) moving averages, while the Nasdaq sits well above its 200‑day but a touch below its 50‑day (~23,392.91), underscoring the recent crosscurrents in high-beta growth (Monexa AI). The NYSE Composite notched 23,340.74, within sight of its year high at 23,374.46, a reminder that broad benchmarks have quietly crept higher even as sector dispersion widens.

The drivers were well-defined. Monexa AI highlights a powerful, AI-centric technology bid, with outperformance in semiconductors and networking-intensive names balanced by an overhang in certain enterprise software exposed to disruption from emerging AI coding tools. Materials also contributed, with miners and metals-linked equities gaining, while staples and parts of healthcare lagged.

Overnight Developments#

Monexa AI’s overnight scan indicates a constructive but measured risk tone. Asia outperformed earlier in the global session as Japanese equities extended their rally; Europe, by contrast, looked more subdued. China’s SMIC (SMICY topped expectations, reporting a roughly 61% year-on-year jump in Q4 net profit, reinforcing the notion that the chip cycle is healing (Monexa AI). U.S. Treasury yields drifted lower as investors turned attention to December retail sales. On the corporate side, Alphabet’s GOOGL launched a $20 billion seven-part bond deal to fund AI infrastructure (Monexa AI), a move emblematic of the capital intensity defining this investment cycle. Separately, Tier‑1 reporting continues to frame 2026 as a year of extraordinary AI infrastructure spending, with big-tech capex pegged near $650 billion (Bloomberg.

Monexa AI also flags headlines around regulatory and legal backdrops that could color early sentiment in communication services and app-store ecosystems, including UK regulator updates on mobile app store practices involving Apple and Google (Monexa AI) and the start of a landmark U.S. social-media trial alleging addictive design elements involving META and GOOGL. While these matters may inject idiosyncratic volatility, they have not altered the broad risk-on bias anchored in AI infrastructure and cash-flow generative platforms.

Macro Analysis#

Economic Indicators to Watch#

Tuesday’s macro calendar centers on the December U.S. retail sales report, which Monexa AI notes is expected to rise around +0.40% m/m per a Reuters economist poll. A firmer print would validate consumption resilience and could bolster cyclicals and select discretionary names, while a downside surprise would likely refocus attention on defensive sectors and services. Beyond retail sales, Monexa AI highlights the rescheduled January Non‑Farm Payrolls for Wednesday, February 11, with a consensus near +70,000 and annual benchmark revisions that could reshape 2025 baselines — a potential volatility catalyst for rates and equities alike. With the VIX sitting near its longer-term average and ^RVX slipping, the options market is not yet pricing a significant macro shock, but dispersion under the surface remains pronounced.

On rates, Monexa AI points to a slight downtick in the 10‑year Treasury yield overnight as traders position into the data. A softer yield backdrop tends to favor duration‑sensitive assets — notably growth equities, REITs, and long‑duration cash flows — and it helps explain some of the relative strength in towers and data‑center adjacencies within real estate. The interplay between yields and AI‑linked growth stories will likely remain the dominant axis of risk pricing into the next several prints and Fed‑speak rounds. While there was a mention in the overnight chatter of an outsized gold move and a sharp U.S. dollar drop, Monexa AI finds a lack of corroborating Tier‑1 confirmation within the latest 48-hour window; as such, we do not incorporate those claims into today’s base case.

Global and Geopolitical Factors#

From a global lens, Monexa AI underscores the Japan-led equity rally, which has persisted post‑election and continues to attract flows seeking value outside the U.S. megacap complex. Chip‑supply concentration remains a strategic theme following commentary that moving large swaths of the supply chain from Taiwan is impractical at scale — a point that implicitly elevates the centrality of foundries such as TSMC (TSM and, by extension, packaging and advanced node capacity. Separately, China’s SMIC (SMICY beat carries a read‑through for the global semi cycle, though geopolitical risk keeps beta elevated. In Europe, opening tones were flatter versus Asia’s strength, suggesting some digestion after Monday’s U.S. rebound.

Regulatory headlines also remain in the mix. Monexa AI notes that Apple and Google have agreed to changes in their app stores with UK authorities, which could modestly influence platform economics and developer relations for GOOGL and Apple (AAPL. Meanwhile, a U.S. trial targeting alleged addictive design in social apps introduces legal overhang for META and GOOGL. Investors should frame these as stock‑specific rather than sector‑wide catalysts unless and until policy momentum builds materially.

Sector Analysis#

Sector Performance Table#

According to Monexa AI, sector performance at Monday’s close showed a defensive‑cyclical blend, with materials and utilities near the top and staples under pressure.

Monexa AI’s heatmap indicates that technology’s move was both top‑down and idiosyncratic. Mega‑caps such as MSFT and NVDA extended gains, while ORCL surged on AI‑cloud momentum. A handful of high‑percentage movers punctuated the day: AppLovin (APP rallied, GLW jumped, and select communication‑services names such as LYV and CHTR outperformed; legacy media dual‑class shares FOX and FOXA lagged. Within financials, insurer/consultant drawdowns — WTW, AJG, AON — weighed on the group, even as brokers and alternatives advanced, including IBKR, ARES, and KKR. Materials leadership was broad, led by miners (FCX, NEM and fertilizers (MOS, signaling commodity‑linked risk appetite and potential China reopen‑through for industrial demand.

Healthcare remained a study in dispersion: WAT fell sharply, while VTRS rallied; large‑cap pharma and managed care — MRK, ELV, UNH — traded softer, though select biotech (MRNA and medtech (ISRG, via Monexa AI heatmap context) provided ballast. In consumer, discretionary trends were mixed; travel and big‑box electronics names like BKNG and BBY slipped, while TSLA and HAS offered some support. Staples underperformed, pressured by marquee brands PEP and KO, alongside WMT. Real estate benefited from lower yields and tower/data‑center adjacency, with CCI, SBAC, and AMT higher; SPG was an outlier on the downside.

Energy’s modest gain was paced by diversified and midstream exposure: XOM, CVX, TRGP, and TPL advanced, while Monexa AI flags isolated underperformers in smaller names. Utilities meanwhile benefited from a hunt for safe yield intertwined with clean‑energy leverage; CEG, GEV, VST, and NRG led, with NEE steady.

Company-Specific Insights#

Earnings and Key Movers#

The single‑stock tape is still dominated by the AI investment cycle, where capital allocation and product cadence determine winners and losers. Monexa AI highlights several movers and catalysts that matter into today’s open.

Alphabet (GOOGL; GOOG sold $20 billion of bonds in a seven‑part deal to fund AI infrastructure (Monexa AI). This underscores the heavy capex needs to support model training and inference at scale. It also potentially lowers the company’s blended cost of capital during an arms race in data centers and networking. The scale of industry spending is echoed by Bloomberg’s reporting that the largest internet platforms could deploy about $650 billion in AI‑related capex in 2026 (Bloomberg. For equity holders, the tension to monitor is the conversion of capex into revenue and cash flow — today’s financing moves are constructive for capacity but raise the bar for ROI discipline.

Oracle (ORCL extended Monday’s surge after rolling out new AI agents across cloud applications and highlighting momentum in AI‑adjacent cloud services (Monexa AI). Monday’s rally built on an analyst upgrade and reinforced the market’s appetite for cash‑generative platforms with tangible AI workflows embedded in enterprise operations. The company’s narrative aligns with the market’s pivot away from the most expensive growth software and toward proven platforms levering AI inside existing customer footprints.

Nvidia (NVDA remains a focal point. Monexa AI notes the stock hovering near year highs, with some relief as fears around potential chip levies faded. More broadly, Nvidia’s multi‑trillion‑dollar market‑cap milestones in 2025 and early 2026 encapsulate the premium investors afford to AI compute incumbents in a capex‑heavy paradigm (Bloomberg. Networking and ASIC beneficiaries like Broadcom (AVGO are along for the ride, while the competitive field continues to expand as established OEMs introduce AI‑centric networking silicon — a development Monexa AI flagged in overnight headlines around new data‑center chips.

Within software, dispersion is front and center. Workday (WDAY is navigating a CEO transition and target cuts, leaving the market hypersensitive to guidance clarity and multi‑year booking durability (Monexa AI). By contrast, Dynatrace (DT delivered a beat and authorized a $1 billion buyback, highlighting durable demand for observability and resilience tools tied to AI workloads. Monexa AI also flagged recent commentary that advanced AI coding tools from OpenAI and Anthropic are raising tough questions for traditional software moats; while Tier‑1 media have documented strategic pivots across the industry, there remains limited near‑term, hard quantification of development‑cycle acceleration attributable to these tools, so investors should avoid over‑fitting their models without company‑specific disclosures (Monexa AI; see also Financial Times for governance-oriented enterprise AI tooling).

In financials, Monexa AI’s heatmap registered double‑digit declines in insurance/benefits consultancies — WTW, AJG, AON — which pressured sector ETFs and sentiment. Offsetting strength appeared in brokers and alternative‑asset managers: IBKR, ARES, KKR, and even MS in the context of a potentially improving equity-capital‑markets pipeline amid large‑cap tech activity (Monexa AI). The key question for today is whether the insurer drawdown proves idiosyncratic or persists; flow‑through to credit markets has not been flagged by Monexa AI at this stage.

Cyclicals showed opposing currents. Discretionary heavyweights like AMZN were fractionally lower, with travel and autos soft — BKNG, BBY, GM — while TSLA and HAS stabilized the tape. In staples, WMT, PEP, and KO slipped, a reminder that defensive profiles are not bulletproof when positioning is crowded or cost narratives shift.

Materials and energy retained a quiet bid. Miners like FCX and NEM outperformed, fertilizers such as MOS gained, and integrated oils and midstream — XOM, CVX, TRGP, TPL — pushed higher. In industrials, Monexa AI called out strength in machinery and defense — CAT, CMI, LMT — and weakness in freight and industrial services — ODFL, ROP, URI. Utilities and power‑exposed names — CEG, VST, NRG, GEV — benefited from the soft‑yield tone and the market’s appetite for stable cash flows with potential AI‑adjacent electricity demand narratives.

Finally, a few idiosyncratic movers are on the radar. Jefferies’ upgrade of FTAI Aviation (FTAI to Buy, with a price target hike to $350 and a multi‑year $3 billion EBITDA ambition, puts engine delivery cadence and margin capture in focus (Monexa AI). In materials, Citigroup maintained Neutral on Cleveland‑Cliffs (CLF with a PT bump to $13 amid volatility (Monexa AI). In healthcare, GSK carried a Neutral stance after an earnings beat and in‑line guidance, while Edgewell (EPC posted a GAAP loss tied to a divestiture but delivered a narrower adjusted loss than expected (Monexa AI). In fintech, Pagaya (PGY drew a Street price target implying outsized potential upside, underscoring the elevated volatility regimes surrounding AI‑enabled underwriting.

Extended Analysis: AI Bifurcation, Capital Intensity, and Positioning#

The market’s defining feature into today’s open is the bifurcation inside technology. On one side, AI infrastructure enablers — GPUs, networking, specialty silicon, data‑center platforms — command premium multiples and have delivered staggering market‑cap gains. Nvidia’s surge to multi‑trillion‑dollar territory in 2025–2026, documented by Tier‑1 outlets, reflects investors’ conviction in sustained compute demand and pricing power across accelerators and systems (Bloomberg. On the other side, traditional application software faces a thicket of questions: if AI agents and coding copilots improve developer productivity and automate standardized workflows, how do incumbents preserve pricing, differentiate features, and defend seat‑based licensing models? While Tier‑1 reporting chronicles strategic pivots — from model‑chooser features and in‑house model development to governance tooling for enterprise AI — there remains scant, near‑term, public quantification of cycle‑time reductions or ROI on AI‑assisted development sufficient to reset valuation frameworks across the board (Monexa AI; Bloomberg; Financial Times.

For allocators, two guideposts stand out this morning. First, the capex wave. Bloomberg pegs 2026 AI‑compute capex around $650 billion across MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META, a magnitude that structurally favors semis, networking, power, and cloud platforms on a multi‑year view. Second, dispersion risk. Monexa AI’s heatmap notes that a relatively small set of winners — tech/infra/mining — are doing much of the index heavy lifting. When breadth narrows, risk management matters: position sizing, stop‑loss discipline around weaker groups (insurance, select healthcare, discretionary retail), and a sharp focus on catalysts (earnings, guidance, product releases, regulatory rulings) can make the difference between tracking the index and underperforming it.

M&A remains a supporting pillar of the story. Reuters reports that global deal activity has been buoyed by AI workloads and data‑center capacity transactions, while coverage in the Wall Street Journal suggests enterprise software consolidation is intensifying as incumbents seek scale and differentiated data/model assets (Reuters; WSJ. This dynamic should persist as commoditization risk rises for standalone, feature‑centric software and as capital continues to chase durable AI moats.

Conclusion#

Morning Recap and Outlook#

The setup into today’s open is clear. According to Monexa AI, Monday’s close featured a tech‑led advance (S&P 500 +0.47%, Nasdaq +0.90%) powered by mega‑caps and AI infrastructure, against sector‑specific weakness in insurance, mixed healthcare, and discretionary retail. Materials and utilities advanced, real estate benefited from softer yields, and energy held a modest bid. Volatility gauges were contained, with ^VIX at 17.43 (+0.40%) and ^RVX lower at 23.22 (-0.81%). Overnight, Asia outperformed (Japan at record highs), Europe digested gains, U.S. yields eased, and Alphabet’s $20 billion AI bond sale highlighted the deepening capital commitment to infrastructure.

What to watch after the bell: retail sales at the open, where a +0.40% m/m outcome (per Monexa AI’s summary of a Reuters poll) would underscore consumption resilience; follow‑through in ORCL, NVDA, MSFT, and other AI bellwethers; stabilization (or not) in insurers WTW, AJG, and AON; and the continuation of commodity‑linked flows into FCX, NEM, and MOS. For positioning, Monexa AI’s read remains “mixed‑to‑cautiously positive”: favor quality large‑cap tech and select commodity/infrastructure exposure on strength; stay selective in software until idiosyncratic risks are priced; and maintain diversification as sector and factor dispersion stays elevated.

Key takeaways for the session: first, the AI‑capex flywheel is intact and now debt‑financed at scale by platforms like GOOGL; second, dispersion risk persists — insurance and staples weakness, healthcare crosscurrents, and mixed discretionary are the counterweights to tech strength; third, macro catalysts — retail sales today and NFP with revisions tomorrow — can reset the rate narrative and, with it, leadership across duration‑sensitive assets. Keep risk tight around idiosyncratic laggards, and let the tape confirm whether Monday’s tech surge broadens into better breadth or remains another case of leadership doing the market’s heavy lifting.