Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Latest Market Analysis: Carbon Capture, Permian Strength & Financial Outlook

Occidental Petroleum's Strategic Shift: Balancing Permian Strength with Carbon Capture Ambitions#

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY is currently navigating a complex energy landscape marked by declining revenues but ambitious investments in carbon capture technology. Recent trading data shows the stock at $43.37, down -1.30% intraday, reflecting market caution ahead of its upcoming August 6 earnings announcement. The juxtaposition of a shrinking top line and the company's strategic pivot toward low-carbon initiatives frames Occidental's latest corporate narrative.

Despite a -5.42% revenue decline to $26.73 billion in FY 2024 from $28.26 billion in 2023, Occidental continues to leverage its robust Permian Basin assets, generating significant free cash flow of $4.42 billion even after capital expenditures of $7.02 billion. This cash flow strength underpins the company's commitment to dividends (yielding 2.12%) and strategic investments in Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, a potentially transformative low-carbon solution.

Financial Performance Overview: Earnings, Margins, and Cash Flow Dynamics#

Occidental's FY 2024 net income dropped -34.92% to $3.06 billion, with net margins narrowing to 11.43% from 16.62% a year earlier. Operating income similarly fell -12.77% to $5.59 billion, reflecting commodity price pressures and increased operating expenses. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy operating margin of 20.93%, supported by a gross profit ratio of 35.73%.

The company’s EBITDA stood at $12.62 billion in 2024, down from $14.54 billion in 2023, but its capital allocation remains focused on growth and sustainability. Free cash flow declined -27.08% year-over-year, yet the $4.42 billion generated still provides substantial liquidity for dividends and reinvestment.

Occidental’s balance sheet reveals an increase in total assets to $85.44 billion in 2024 from $74.01 billion in 2023, driven primarily by capital investments in property, plant, and equipment, which grew to $70.31 billion. The company’s net debt increased to $24.97 billion, reflecting continued capital expenditure. However, the debt-to-equity ratio remains moderate at approximately 0.75x, indicating manageable leverage.

Direct Air Capture (DAC): A Strategic Bet on Carbon Removal#

Occidental is aggressively investing in DAC technology, exemplified by its $1.1 billion acquisition of Carbon Engineering and the development of the Stratos DAC facility in West Texas. This facility targets capturing 0.5 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, with plans to scale to 1 million tons. Although current capture costs exceed $600 per tonne, Occidental aims to reduce this to $100 per tonne through technological innovation and scale economies.

The economics of DAC remain challenging, but policy incentives and the growing carbon credit market present substantial revenue opportunities. Occidental's billion-dollar carbon credit plan is a key strategic pillar, monetizing carbon removal efforts and enhancing long-term profitability.

Permian Basin Operations: The Backbone of Occidental’s Cash Flow#

Occidental's Permian Basin operations remain a critical cash flow engine. In Q1 2025, production averaged approximately 1.39 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, supported by operational efficiencies that reduced drilling time by 15% and well costs by 10%. Domestic operating costs are approximately $8.65 per barrel, highlighting robust operational discipline.

These efficiencies have helped Occidental sustain positive margins despite volatile commodity prices. The Permian's profitability supports the company's ability to fund dividends and invest in growth areas, including DAC.

Market Position and Competitive Landscape#

Compared to industry peers, Occidental distinguishes itself with a dual focus on legacy oil production and carbon capture leadership. While competitors like Shell and BP emphasize diversified energy transition strategies including renewables and electrification, Occidental's heavy investment in DAC technology positions it uniquely in carbon removal markets.

This strategy is supported by Berkshire Hathaway’s investment, which accounts for over 20% ownership. Warren Buffett’s stake underscores institutional confidence in Occidental's strategic direction and cash flow stability.

Valuation and Forward-Looking Financial Metrics#

Occidental's current P/E ratio is approximately 17.56x, with a trailing P/E of 13.15x reflecting recent earnings. Forward P/E estimates indicate a declining trend from 18.73x in 2025 to 8.93x in 2029, suggesting market expectations of improving profitability and earnings growth.

Analyst consensus forecasts a revenue CAGR of +2.26% and EPS CAGR of +20.33% through 2029, signaling optimism about growth and margin expansion driven by operational efficiencies and DAC commercialization.

What Does This Mean For Investors?#

Occidental’s blend of traditional oil & gas profitability and pioneering DAC investments creates a complex but potentially rewarding investment profile. The company’s ability to generate strong free cash flow from its Permian assets supports dividend sustainability and strategic flexibility.

The DAC initiatives, while costly today, represent a long-term growth vector aligned with evolving regulatory and market frameworks favoring carbon reduction. Success in scaling and cost reduction could materially enhance Occidental’s valuation.

Key Takeaways#

• Occidental’s FY 2024 revenue declined -5.42%, with net income down -34.92%, reflecting industry headwinds.
• Free cash flow remains robust at $4.42 billion, funding dividends and growth.
• The Permian Basin drives operational efficiencies and positive margins.
• DAC investments position Occidental as a carbon capture leader, with goals to reduce capture costs from $600 to $100 per tonne.
• Berkshire Hathaway’s >20% stake signals strong institutional backing.
• Forward estimates indicate revenue and EPS growth, with improving valuation multiples.

Sources#

• Occidental Petroleum: Navigating the Energy Transition with Permian Strength and Carbon Capture Ambitions
• Seeking Alpha: Occidental Petroleum's Financial Outlook and Valuations
• Carbon Market Watch: Occidental's Billion-Dollar Carbon Credit Plan Takes Shape
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: Permian Basin Data
• R Street Institute: Permitting Challenges in Carbon Dioxide Removal
• CMS Law: Energy Transition Strategies of Major Oil & Gas Companies