Key Takeaway — Buffett’s stake lands amid a profit reset#
Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of a roughly 3% stake in [NUE] earlier in 2025 landed as Nucor reported a pronounced cycle downshift: FY2024 revenue declined to $30.73B (-11.46% YoY) while reported net income dropped to $2.03B (-55.04% YoY). That contrast — an outsized institutional vote of confidence against a backdrop of materially compressed margins and sharply lower free cash flow — creates the central tension for investors: does Berkshire see a durable structural opportunity in Nucor’s electric-arc-furnace (EAF) franchise, or is this a value play priced for cyclical recovery? The numbers below come from Nucor’s FY2024 filings and company financial statements (filed 2025-02-27) and subsequent quarterly disclosures Nucor investor relations and SEC filings SEC search.
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Financial review: revenue, margins and the cash-flow disconnect#
Nucor’s FY2024 results show a clear normalization from the profit peaks of 2021–2022. Revenue fell to $30.73B in 2024 from $34.71B in 2023, a decline of -11.46% using the company-reported top-line figures. Gross profit contracted to $4.10B, yielding a gross margin of 13.35%, down from 22.51% in 2023. Operating income of $2.98B produced an operating margin of ~9.70%, while the statutory net margin landed at ~6.61% in 2024.
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Nucor Corporation (NUE): Margin Compression Meets Heavy CapEx
Nucor warned Q3 margin compression while FY2024 net income plunged -55.20% to **$2.03B** as a $3B 2025 capex program ramps and buybacks continue.
Nucor Corporation (NUE): Berkshire Stake, Q2 Tears and the Strategic Pivot to AI Infrastructure
Berkshire discloses ~**$850M** stake in [NUE] as Nucor posts **Q2 2025** EPS $2.60 on **$8.46B** revenue while navigating a May cyber breach and heavy capex.
Nucor Corporation (NUE): Berkshire’s Big Bet and a Quarter That Exposes the Cyclical Tradeoffs
Berkshire’s ~ $850M stake in Nucor landed as the company posted a Q2 EPS beat ($2.60) but softer revenue and cautious guidance, exposing margin and cash‑flow inflection points.
The profit swing is even sharper on the bottom line. From $4.52B in 2023 to $2.03B in 2024, Nucor’s year-over-year net income declined -55.04%, a magnitude consistent with cyclical steel-price compressions and margin contraction. EBITDA for FY2024 was $4.49B, a 14.61% EBITDA margin on the year’s revenue, down materially from 2022 peak levels. These relative declines reflect both lower realized steel pricing and mix shifts away from the pricing environment that supported abnormally high margins in the prior cycle (2021–2022).
A notable reconciliation issue emerges between the income-statement line and cash-flow reporting: the income statement reports FY2024 net income of $2.03B, while the cash-flow schedule lists netIncome $2.32B for the same period. Where datasets conflict, we highlight the discrepancy and prioritize filing-level line items for context; the difference likely reflects timing, nonrecurring items captured differently across schedules, or classification adjustments in the company’s reported cash-flow reconciliation (see filings) Nucor investor relations.
Income statement trend (FY2021–FY2024)#
| Year | Revenue (USD) | Gross Profit (USD) | Operating Income (USD) | Net Income (USD) | EBITDA (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30,730,000,000 | 4,100,000,000 | 2,980,000,000 | 2,030,000,000 | 4,490,000,000 |
| 2023 | 34,710,000,000 | 7,820,000,000 | 6,230,000,000 | 4,520,000,000 | 7,690,000,000 |
| 2022 | 41,510,000,000 | 12,500,000,000 | 10,510,000,000 | 7,610,000,000 | 11,570,000,000 |
| 2021 | 36,480,000,000 | 11,030,000,000 | 9,320,000,000 | 6,830,000,000 | 10,230,000,000 |
(Values per company financial statements; see Nucor filings linked above.)
Balance sheet, liquidity and leverage: liquidity remains, net debt rose#
Nucor entered the 2024 year-end with total assets of $33.94B and total stockholders’ equity of $20.29B. Cash and cash equivalents were $3.56B, and total debt was $6.95B, producing a reported net debt of $3.39B (total debt minus cash). That net-debt figure represents a meaningful increase from 2023’s net-debt of approximately $459MM, driven by elevated capex and acquisitive activity in 2024.
The company’s reported capital expenditures rose substantially: investments in property, plant and equipment were $3.17B in 2024, up from $2.21B in 2023. That higher capex, combined with common stock repurchases of $2.22B and dividends totaling $522MM in 2024, explains the cash outflows and higher net debt at year end. Despite the cash decline, Nucor’s balance sheet still shows a conservative leverage profile versus many steel peers — end‑2024 debt-to-equity stands near 0.34x by our calculation (total debt $6.95B / equity $20.29B = 0.34x), a level that preserves flexibility for cyclical swings.
Balance sheet & cash flow snapshot (FY2021–FY2024)#
| Year | Cash & Equivalents (USD) | Total Assets (USD) | Total Debt (USD) | Net Debt (USD) | CapEx (USD) | Free Cash Flow (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3,560,000,000 | 33,940,000,000 | 6,950,000,000 | 3,390,000,000 | 3,170,000,000 | 806,000,000 |
| 2023 | 6,380,000,000 | 35,340,000,000 | 6,840,000,000 | 459,000,000 | 2,210,000,000 | 4,900,000,000 |
| 2022 | 4,280,000,000 | 32,480,000,000 | 6,690,000,000 | 2,410,000,000 | 1,950,000,000 | 8,120,000,000 |
| 2021 | 2,360,000,000 | 25,820,000,000 | 5,680,000,000 | 3,320,000,000 | 1,620,000,000 | 4,610,000,000 |
(Company financial statements; capex and FCF reported in cash-flow statements.)
Capital allocation: buybacks, dividends and growth capex#
Even in a year of margin compression, Nucor continued to return cash: $2.22B of share repurchases and $522MM in dividends in FY2024. The company’s trailing data show a dividend per share of $2.19 and a current market price of $145.60, implying a yield of ~1.50% (2.19 / 145.60). Calculating a basic payout ratio using TTM EPS of $5.62 gives a payout of ~38.99% (2.19 / 5.62), supporting the company’s long track record of dividend increases.
Nucor’s management has prioritized growth capex to expand midstream and specialty capacity — capex that rose to $3.17B in 2024. That spend is the proximate cause of the swing to negative free cash flow in the year (FCF $806MM), and it aligns with the company’s strategic push to capture infrastructure and data-center demand. The trade-off is clear: the company is sacrificing near-term cash generation in favor of capacity and capability expansion that management expects will compound over a multi-year horizon.
From a capital-allocation lens, the combination of elevated capex plus sustained buybacks signals management confidence in long-term returns on deployed capital, while also illustrating the potential for near-term liquidity pressure should steel prices remain weak. Nucor’s end-2024 net debt and undrawn credit capacity give it runway, but the scale-up in investment materially changed the balance-sheet picture relative to 2023.
Strategic positioning and the Berkshire stake: why the interest?#
Berkshire Hathaway’s roughly 3% disclosed stake in early 2025 (reported in public filings) has catalyzed debate about whether this is a structural endorsement of Nucor’s EAF model and domestic footprint or a cyclical value bet. Nucor’s advantages are well articulated in corporate disclosures and industry commentary: a nationwide network of EAF mini‑mills, vertical integration in scrap collection and downstream capabilities, and exposure to higher-growth end markets such as construction, energy infrastructure and hyperscale data centers. These attributes map to a durable supply‑chain advantage when governments and corporations prioritize domestic, lower‑carbon steel.
Financially, the attraction is also valuation-driven. Nucor’s reported forward P/E for 2025 of 17.45x (per the company’s forward estimates dataset) is lower than many comparably scaled industrials during recoveries, while forward EV/EBITDA multiples show a material compression relative to recent cycle highs. If Berkshire is positioning for a multi-year infrastructure and data-center-led recovery, the combination of near-term multiple compression and long-term secular demand could explain the stake.
That said, a large institutional purchase does not erase operational risks. Nucor’s 2024 performance illustrates how quickly cyclical forces can erode margins and cash flow. Investors should interpret Berkshire’s disclosure as an endorsement of asset quality and optionality rather than a guarantee that near-term earnings volatility has ended. The company’s EAF model and low effective leverage are structural positives that likely drew institutional interest, but execution on growth projects and pricing into 2025–2026 will determine realized returns.
Operational risks: cyclicality, acquisition activity and cyber incident#
Three risk clusters stand out. First, steel is inherently cyclical; realized prices and margin spreads can compress rapidly—as 2024 demonstrated. Second, the company’s acquisition posture and elevated capex raise execution and integration risk: 2024 shows acquisitions net of $757MM and heavy investment across the plant footprint, which contribute to free-cash-flow pressure and higher net debt.
Third, the May 2025 cybersecurity incident (company disclosure) introduced reputational and regulatory risk. Nucor reported unauthorized access and limited data exfiltration, and while management stated it did not expect a material operational or financial impact, the long tail of cyber incidents can include litigation, remediation costs and customer/contract friction for suppliers in critical infrastructure chains. The firm’s subsequent disclosures and remedial actions will be an important monitorable for investors and counterparties.
Competitive dynamics: EAF moat vs BF-BOF peers#
Nucor’s EAF-based cost structure and integrated scrap network create a relative advantage versus BF-BOF competitors in carbon intensity and flexibility. Those attributes have growing commercial value as infrastructure and corporate buyers add embodied‑carbon requirements to procurement. Against peers like Steel Dynamics and Cleveland‑Cliffs, Nucor enters 2025 with lower relative leverage and an asset footprint designed for fast, decentralized supply — features that should preserve pricing power when demand is localized and supply chains prioritize resilience.
Financially, Nucor’s debt-to-equity approximates 0.34x at year-end 2024, materially lower than some integrated competitors. That conservatism gives management room to maintain the dividend and continue prioritized buybacks while investing in growth — provided market dynamics cooperate. The competitive test will be whether Nucor can convert investments into higher-utilization runs and better mix to restore margins without needing to re-leverage the balance sheet unsustainably.
What this means for investors#
The headline is simple: Nucor is a structurally advantaged steel producer executing an aggressive growth-and-return program at a point in the cycle when margins have normalized from pandemic-era peaks. Investors should weigh three primary implications. First, corporate fundamentals show that FY2024 revenue and net income fell by -11.46% and -55.04% respectively, evidence that profitability is sensitive to steel pricing and mix. Second, management continues to allocate capital aggressively — $3.17B capex and $2.22B buybacks in 2024 — which has expanded capacity but compressed free cash flow in the near term (FCF $806MM in 2024). Third, large external votes of confidence — the Berkshire stake — reflect belief in the company’s durable advantages (EAF, domestic footprint, and product breadth), but they do not immunize Nucor from cyclical earnings volatility or execution risk.
For monitoring, trackers should include quarterly margin recovery, utilization rates at core mills, incremental returns on recent growth projects, and remediation updates or liabilities arising from the 2025 cybersecurity incident. The forward-looking estimates in company datasets suggest revenue and EPS recovery into the latter half of the decade (analyst-modeled CAGR), but actual outcomes will hinge on market pricing and successful commissioning of growth assets.
Conclusion — a structural franchise inside a cyclical story#
Nucor sits at an intersection of structural thematic tailwinds (domestic infrastructure, data centers, lower‑emission steel) and classic commodity cyclicality. The FY2024 results crystallize that dynamic: strong asset and franchise characteristics paired with a meaningful near-term profit reset and a temporary cash-flow squeeze driven by capex and buybacks. Berkshire Hathaway’s stake adds a high-profile validation of the franchise, but the investment case rests on whether management can convert capex into sustained margin recovery and earnings growth over the medium term.
The key datapoints to watch next are quarterly revenue and margin trends, capital‑project commissioning timelines and any evolving disclosures around cybersecurity remediation or legal action. Those outcomes will determine whether 2024 proved a trough in earnings or merely a step in a more protracted cycle. For now, the fundamental story is one of durable strategic advantages being tested by short‑term cyclical and operational forces.